The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Lehigh Valley Phantoms v Cleveland Monsters

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local)

Prediction 33.00%3.03fair odd
EV -7.59%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -4.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.61%32.95%33.00%34.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.692.702.8039.22%37.14%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Monsters (Visit)

Prediction 44.14%2.27fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.705%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.83%44.38%44.14%45.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.122.132.2351.02%47.16%47.06%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.86%4.37fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.803%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%22.66%22.86%23.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.683.953.954.2627.17%25.30%25.32%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local): 33.00%; Cleveland Monsters (Visit): 44.14%; Draw: 22.86%. For Cleveland Monsters (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.23, with an expected value of -1.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.99%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.66%EV -3.78%E -1.73%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.34%EV -2.62%E -0.615%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 04:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.31%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 04:29
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.24%E -3.36%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.52%E -4.64%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 04:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.61%EV -9.24%E -3.36%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.52%EV -13.05%E -6.62%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -6.28%E -1.53%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 11:35
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 33.88%EV -10.56%E -3.90%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -7.31%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -6.28%E -1.53%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 18:15
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -1.57%E -0.705%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.71%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 07:49
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -1.57%E -0.705%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.71%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 07:50
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -1.57%E -0.705%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.71%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 07:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -1.57%E -0.705%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.71%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 07:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -1.57%E -0.705%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.71%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 07:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -1.57%E -0.705%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.71%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 07:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -1.57%E -0.705%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.71%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 07:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.52%E -4.64%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-12 04:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.23%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.77%EV -9.52%E -4.64%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 04:30
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.41%EV -13.20%E -5.02%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -5.10%E -2.37%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -11.99%E -3.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-12 07:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.33%EV -14.19%E -5.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 43.55%EV -12.17%E -6.11%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.11%EV -14.28%E -3.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-12 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 33.14%EV -14.85%E -5.76%K -9.40%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.62%EV -13.49%E -6.88%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.23%EV -15.88%E -4.31%K -5.92%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-12 18:43
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.75%EV -15.84%E -6.21%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.90%EV -13.49%E -6.88%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.35%EV -11.99%E -3.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-12 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-04-12 19:00
Bet Right🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%5.3%2026-04-12 18:15
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%6.1%2026-04-12 04:29
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-04-12 06:59
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%7.6%2026-04-12 07:50
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%7.6%2026-04-12 07:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-04-12 04:30
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%8.0%2026-04-12 07:50
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%8.3%2026-04-12 07:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%9.4%2026-04-12 07:55