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Lehigh Valley Phantoms v Bridgeport Islanders

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local)

Prediction 38.50%2.60fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.99%38.53%38.33%39.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.332.322.4744.44%42.99%43.10%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bridgeport Islanders (Visit)

Prediction 38.97%2.57fair odd
EV -0.624%
Edge -0.245%
Kelly -0.402%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.19%38.92%39.16%39.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.422.5545.45%41.40%41.24%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.53%4.44fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.527%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.31%22.54%22.52%23.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.973.904.3626.67%25.20%25.64%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local): 38.50%; Bridgeport Islanders (Visit): 38.97%; Draw: 22.53%. For Bridgeport Islanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -0.624%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.23%EV -4.91%E -1.99%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.43%EV -5.15%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-10 20:15
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -8.37%E -3.52%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.25%E -3.05%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.44%EV -1.77%E -0.406%K -0.527%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 23:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -8.37%E -3.52%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.07%EV -4.52%E -1.85%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.63%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 23:10
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.33%EV -9.53%E -4.05%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.16%EV -10.37%E -4.51%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -9.88%E -2.47%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 23:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -9.53%E -4.05%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -9.88%E -2.47%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-11 23:08
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -9.53%E -4.05%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -9.88%E -2.47%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-11 21:09
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -0.624%E -0.245%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:30
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -0.624%E -0.245%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -0.624%E -0.245%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -0.624%E -0.245%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:29
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -0.624%E -0.245%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -0.624%E -0.245%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -0.624%E -0.245%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.17%EV -11.45%E -4.98%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.02%EV -7.64%E -3.22%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.81%EV -11.01%E -2.79%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-10 07:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.91%EV -11.45%E -4.98%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 23:09
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -13.38%E -5.94%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.19%EV -3.35%E -1.35%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.93%EV -15.51%E -4.14%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 04:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.79%EV -13.38%E -5.94%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.94%EV -10.37%E -4.51%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.27%EV -15.51%E -4.14%K -5.64%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-11 22:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.24%EV -13.38%E -5.94%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.11%EV -14.26%E -6.48%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.64%EV -14.39%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-11 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-04-11 23:05
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%5.0%2026-04-11 23:10
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%5.3%2026-04-11 15:59
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%7.7%2026-04-10 04:24
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%7.7%2026-04-10 04:24
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-04-11 23:10
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%8.1%2026-04-11 11:25
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-04-10 04:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-04-11 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-04-10 23:10