The School of Odds
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Lehigh Valley Phantoms v Belleville Senators

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 19:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local)

Prediction 38.29%2.61fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.623%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.96%38.56%38.29%39.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.422.5745.45%41.70%41.41%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belleville Senators (Visit)

Prediction 40.24%2.49fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.47%39.95%40.24%42.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.192.3846.51%44.92%45.66%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.47%4.66fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -0.962%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.35%21.49%21.47%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.304.334.5025.64%23.27%23.09%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local): 38.29%; Belleville Senators (Visit): 40.24%; Draw: 21.47%. For Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.57, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.96%EV -1.60%E -0.623%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.95%EV -6.65%E -2.86%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -7.66%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 17:40
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.44%EV -12.28%E -5.63%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -3.37%E -0.748%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.44%EV -12.28%E -5.63%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -3.37%E -0.748%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.44%EV -12.28%E -5.63%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -3.37%E -0.748%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 17:40
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.44%EV -12.28%E -5.63%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -3.37%E -0.748%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 17:40
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.44%EV -12.28%E -5.63%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -3.37%E -0.748%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.44%EV -12.28%E -5.63%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -3.37%E -0.748%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.45%E -3.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -7.66%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 17:49
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -8.88%E -3.73%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -4.23%E -1.78%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.44%EV -6.37%E -1.46%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 19:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.94%EV -9.26%E -3.91%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 40.14%EV -9.87%E -4.40%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -11.96%E -2.92%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 17:49
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.60%EV -10.02%E -4.27%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -9.46%E -4.21%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -7.66%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -11.94%E -5.19%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.71%EV -11.48%E -5.22%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -5.51%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -13.85%E -6.16%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.91%EV -7.45%E -3.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.81%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.22%EV -13.85%E -6.16%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.00%EV -13.49%E -6.27%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.77%EV -15.18%E -3.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-25 19:06
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.22%EV -13.85%E -6.16%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.00%EV -13.49%E -6.27%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.77%EV -15.18%E -3.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-25 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.34%EV -15.77%E -7.17%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -9.46%E -4.21%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.19%EV -16.25%E -4.17%K -5.60%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-25 19:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-10-25 17:49
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%5.1%2026-10-25 17:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%7.1%2026-10-25 17:49
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%7.5%2026-10-25 17:49
Bally Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%7.5%2026-10-25 17:40
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-10-25 17:49
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%8.4%2026-10-25 17:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-10-25 17:49
Kalshi◎1.06I 94.34%NM 50.00%1.06I 94.34%NM 50.00%88.7%2026-10-25 19:10