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Laval Rocket v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 19:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Laval Rocket (Local)

Prediction 44.23%2.26fair odd
EV -6.67%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -6.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.69%44.23%44.23%44.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.072.102.1150.51%48.32%47.62%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV -6.55%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -3.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.97%33.37%33.37%34.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.752.8039.22%36.63%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.39%4.47fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -0.809%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.35%22.39%22.39%23.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.994.004.3127.03%25.08%25.00%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Laval Rocket (Local): 44.23%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 33.37%; Draw: 22.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.31, with an expected value of -3.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.31%EV -6.67%E -3.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.69%EV -3.49%E -0.809%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -5.95%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 19:05
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 07:45
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 07:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 07:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 07:44
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 07:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.11%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 07:45
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.32%E -4.55%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.43%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 18:59
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.77%EV -9.32%E -4.55%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.23%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -12.67%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 07:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.69%EV -9.32%E -4.55%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -13.23%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.65%EV -17.15%E -4.63%K -6.35%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-09 18:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -11.54%E -5.77%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.83%EV -11.56%E -4.36%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -5.95%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-09 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.29%EV -11.54%E -5.77%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -13.23%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.40%EV -17.15%E -4.63%K -6.35%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-09 19:02
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.53%EV -12.42%E -6.27%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.80%EV -14.89%E -5.84%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.68%EV -14.91%E -3.92%K -5.32%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-09 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%3.2%2026-05-09 19:00
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%5.0%2026-05-09 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-09 16:24
GTbets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%6.3%2026-05-09 19:05
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%7.3%2026-05-06 07:42
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%7.3%2026-05-06 07:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-05-09 19:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-05-09 09:20
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%8.1%2026-05-06 07:44
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%8.2%2026-05-09 07:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-05-09 12:04