The School of Odds
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Iowa Wild v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 22:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Wild (Local)

Prediction 25.93%3.86fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.24%25.96%25.93%27.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.463.503.6931.25%28.92%28.57%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 53.22%1.88fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.25%53.28%53.22%54.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.711.711.8160.98%58.45%58.48%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.85%4.80fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.338%
Kelly -0.429%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.76%20.76%20.85%22.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.314.304.7226.32%23.20%23.26%21.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Wild (Local): 25.93%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 53.22%; Draw: 20.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.72, with an expected value of -1.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV -4.30%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.10%EV -3.68%E -2.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.85%EV -3.89%E -0.843%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 21:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.87%E -3.93%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.18%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 21:59
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -9.00%E -5.26%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -12.44%E -2.96%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 22:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -9.00%E -5.26%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -12.44%E -2.96%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 22:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -9.00%E -5.26%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -12.44%E -2.96%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 22:04
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.02%EV -9.00%E -5.26%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -10.35%E -2.41%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-21 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -12.19%E -7.39%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -8.27%E -1.88%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-21 22:04
1xBet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -10.27%E -2.97%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.29%EV -6.87%E -3.93%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 19.76%EV -1.59%E -0.338%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 21:59
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.82%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.61%EV -9.00%E -5.26%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.92%EV -10.35%E -2.41%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-21 22:04
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.12%E -3.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -9.53%E -5.61%K -13.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -6.18%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-21 21:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.75%EV -15.71%E -4.83%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.05%EV -11.13%E -6.66%K -16.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.20%EV -14.52%E -3.54%K -4.68%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-21 21:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%EV -17.01%E -5.32%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 50.25%EV -8.47%E -4.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -20.77%E -5.47%K -7.42%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-21 22:03
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.93%EV -17.01%E -5.32%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 52.55%EV -12.72%E -7.76%K -19.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.52%EV -12.44%E -2.96%K -3.89%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-21 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%5.3%2026-03-21 21:59
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-03-21 22:04
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-03-21 22:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-03-21 21:59
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%7.7%2026-03-21 22:05
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%7.7%2026-03-21 22:04
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%7.7%2026-03-21 22:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%8.9%2026-03-21 21:59
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%9.0%2026-03-21 22:05