The School of Odds
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Iowa Wild v Milwaukee Admirals

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 00:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Wild (Local)

Prediction 36.22%2.76fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.43%35.85%36.22%37.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.552.6642.55%39.74%39.22%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Admirals (Visit)

Prediction 40.81%2.45fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.28%40.79%40.81%41.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.272.3247.62%44.70%44.05%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.96%4.35fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%23.36%22.96%24.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.944.004.1327.78%25.36%25.00%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Wild (Local): 36.22%; Milwaukee Admirals (Visit): 40.81%; Draw: 22.96%. For Iowa Wild (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.66, with an expected value of -3.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.47%EV -3.65%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.57%EV -7.35%E -3.24%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.96%EV -5.62%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 20:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -10.21%E -4.64%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -17.33%E -4.81%K -6.67%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-21 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.92%EV -7.35%E -3.24%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -5.85%E -1.43%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-21 21:35
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -6.95%E -3.05%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.14%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 20:25
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -6.95%E -3.05%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.14%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 20:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -6.95%E -3.05%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.14%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 20:25
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -6.95%E -3.05%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.14%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 20:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -6.95%E -3.05%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.14%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 20:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -6.95%E -3.05%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.14%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 20:25
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.09%EV -8.72%E -3.46%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.28%EV -5.31%E -2.29%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.63%EV -5.16%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 23:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -10.21%E -4.64%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -10.44%E -2.68%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-22 00:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.52%EV -10.53%E -4.26%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.64%EV -9.39%E -4.23%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -9.29%E -2.35%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-21 21:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -11.25%E -4.59%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%EV -10.21%E -4.64%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -8.14%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-22 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.31%EV -14.88%E -6.33%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.63%EV -14.29%E -6.81%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.06%EV -15.03%E -4.06%K -5.57%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-22 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.19%EV -14.88%E -6.33%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.50%EV -14.29%E -6.81%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.30%EV -16.18%E -4.43%K -6.11%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-21 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-10-21 21:45
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-10-22 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%7.0%2026-10-21 21:45
Bally Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%7.8%2026-10-20 20:25
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%7.8%2026-10-20 20:25
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%8.3%2026-10-21 21:35
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.30%8.6%2026-10-20 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%9.0%2026-10-21 23:59
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 49.02%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.98%12.1%2026-10-22 00:05