The School of Odds
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Iowa Wild v Grand Rapids Griffins

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iowa Wild (Local)

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.23%25.07%24.92%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.723.7530.30%27.64%26.88%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grand Rapids Griffins (Visit)

Prediction 53.37%1.87fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -6.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%53.37%53.71%54.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.731.781.7860.98%57.69%56.18%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.56%4.64fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.89%21.56%21.37%23.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.084.004.4325.64%24.52%25.00%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Wild (Local): 25.07%; Grand Rapids Griffins (Visit): 53.37%; Draw: 21.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.43, with an expected value of -4.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -13.77%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 00:24
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -13.77%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 00:24
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -13.77%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 00:24
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -13.77%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 00:24
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -13.77%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -13.77%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 00:24
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -13.77%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 00:25
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.40%EV -10.87%E -6.51%K -16.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.38%EV -8.38%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-16 00:00
GTbets🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.40%EV -6.73%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.08%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.52%EV -5.36%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 00:25
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -7.67%E -4.43%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -15.92%E -4.08%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-14 00:24
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -10.87%E -6.51%K -16.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -9.46%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-15 23:40
1xBet🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 26.46%EV -11.50%E -3.26%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.46%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.08%EV -4.50%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.46%EV -10.34%E -6.15%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.89%EV -7.30%E -1.70%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-16 00:04
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -13.50%E -3.91%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.99%EV -7.67%E -4.43%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.94%EV -11.61%E -2.83%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-15 23:34
Betclic (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.43%EV -14.75%E -4.34%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.40%EV -11.94%E -7.24%K -18.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.17%EV -15.92%E -4.08%K -5.49%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-16 00:04
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.35%EV -14.75%E -4.34%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 52.55%EV -12.47%E -7.61%K -19.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.10%EV -15.92%E -4.08%K -5.49%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-16 00:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -17.26%E -5.23%K -7.51%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.70%EV -10.34%E -6.15%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.99%EV -14.85%E -3.76%K -5.03%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-15 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%5.3%2026-04-15 23:39
theScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-04-15 23:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-04-15 13:10
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-04-16 00:04
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%8.0%2026-04-15 23:29
Bally Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%8.0%2026-04-15 23:29
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%8.2%2026-04-15 23:34
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%8.4%2026-04-14 00:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%8.9%2026-04-15 19:15
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.10%8.9%2026-04-16 00:04