The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v W-B/Scranton Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-05-07 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 30.48%3.28fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.66%30.48%30.48%32.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.953.1036.36%34.07%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 46.66%2.14fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.80%46.66%46.66%48.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.952.0455.56%52.01%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.86%4.37fair odd
EV +2.88%
Edge +0.639%
Kelly +0.822%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.68%22.86%22.86%23.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.134.204.5027.78%24.23%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 30.48%; W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit): 46.66%; Draw: 22.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.88%.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.09%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.23%EV -8.09%E -4.10%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV +2.88%E +0.639%K +0.822%G +0.024%7.5%2026-05-07 23:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.09%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.23%EV -8.09%E -4.10%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV +2.88%E +0.639%K +0.822%G +0.024%7.5%2026-05-07 23:10
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.34%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.16%EV -8.55%E -4.36%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -1.70%E -0.394%K -0.514%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 08:30
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.29%EV -9.02%E -4.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -1.70%E -0.394%K -0.514%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-06 08:30
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.29%EV -9.02%E -4.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -1.70%E -0.394%K -0.514%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-06 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.29%EV -9.02%E -4.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -1.70%E -0.394%K -0.514%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-06 08:30
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.80%EV -4.82%E -2.36%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -2.84%E -0.668%K -0.874%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 22:54
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.48%EV -11.82%E -6.25%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -3.98%E -0.948%K -1.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-06 08:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.00%EV -16.17%E -5.88%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.05%EV -12.75%E -6.82%K -14.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.95%EV -3.98%E -0.948%K -1.24%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-07 23:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.53%EV -8.09%E -4.10%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -8.55%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-07 23:09
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -9.02%E -4.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.55%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.43%EV -13.22%E -7.11%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -8.55%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-07 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.07%EV -14.65%E -5.23%K -8.14%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.03%EV -11.82%E -6.25%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.90%EV -13.13%E -3.45%K -4.69%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-07 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.66%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.77%EV -16.02%E -8.90%K -20.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.56%EV -16.56%E -4.54%K -6.25%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-07 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.72%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.34%EV -15.08%E -8.29%K -18.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.93%EV -17.70%E -4.92%K -6.81%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-07 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-05-07 23:10
Bet Right🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%5.2%2026-05-07 23:04
GTbets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.13%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%6.2%2026-05-07 23:05
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%7.0%2026-05-07 23:10
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%7.2%2026-05-07 23:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%7.6%2026-05-07 23:04
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.21%7.9%2026-05-07 23:05
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%8.4%2026-05-07 11:05
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%8.5%2026-05-06 08:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%9.2%2026-05-07 23:09
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.29%10.0%2026-05-07 23:10