The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Texas Stars

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 21:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 32.06%3.12fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%31.79%32.06%32.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.923.003.0537.74%34.30%33.33%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Stars (Visit)

Prediction 46.10%2.17fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.50%46.25%46.10%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.931.892.0753.48%51.87%52.91%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.83%4.58fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -0.893%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.91%21.96%21.83%22.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.234.334.4026.32%23.64%23.09%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 32.06%; Texas Stars (Visit): 46.10%; Draw: 21.83%. For Hershey Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -2.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%EV -2.21%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.80%EV -12.87%E -6.81%K -14.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -3.93%E -0.893%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -2.21%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -13.33%E -7.09%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -3.93%E -0.893%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -2.21%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -13.33%E -7.09%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -3.93%E -0.893%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -2.21%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -13.33%E -7.09%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -3.93%E -0.893%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -2.21%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -13.33%E -7.09%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -3.93%E -0.893%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -2.21%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -13.33%E -7.09%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -3.93%E -0.893%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 14:01
GTbets🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.75%EV -3.49%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.17%EV -4.57%E -2.21%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.07%EV -5.46%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 02:30
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -10.10%E -5.18%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.66%E -3.17%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 20:59
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.05%EV -6.37%E -2.18%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.33%EV -6.87%E -3.40%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.61%EV -5.46%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 20:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.16%EV -6.87%E -3.40%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.11%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 05:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -11.82%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.11%EV -9.64%E -4.92%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -6.11%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-11 05:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.47%EV -11.82%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.27%EV -11.02%E -5.71%K -11.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 19:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -11.82%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.78%EV -11.02%E -5.71%K -11.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%EV -12.66%E -3.17%K -4.22%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 05:38
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.78%EV -13.43%E -4.97%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 45.64%EV -13.33%E -7.09%K -15.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.58%EV -17.03%E -4.48%K -6.08%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-11 21:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.11%EV -15.03%E -5.67%K -9.11%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 45.50%EV -13.79%E -7.37%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.39%EV -17.03%E -4.48%K -6.08%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-11 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%2.8%2026-10-11 21:00
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-10-11 16:49
Bet Right🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%5.2%2026-10-11 20:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%6.8%2026-10-11 18:34
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%7.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%7.2%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 42.71%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.29%8.4%2026-10-11 17:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%9.0%2026-10-11 10:39