The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Rochester Americans

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 19:14 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 36.14%2.77fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.35%36.69%36.14%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.592.6443.48%39.48%38.61%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Americans (Visit)

Prediction 41.14%2.43fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.78%40.93%41.14%42.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.242.252.3348.78%44.55%44.44%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.72%4.40fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.319%
Kelly -0.415%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.31%22.38%22.72%24.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.903.804.3427.03%25.61%26.32%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 36.14%; Rochester Americans (Visit): 41.14%; Draw: 22.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.34, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.74%EV -4.58%E -1.74%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.20%EV -5.80%E -2.53%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.07%EV -7.07%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 22:50
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.85%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.85%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.85%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 18:25
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.85%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 18:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.85%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.85%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.85%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.75%EV -8.68%E -3.91%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.84%E -1.67%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 19:05
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.28%EV -6.75%E -2.62%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.16%EV -8.68%E -3.91%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.57%EV -1.39%E -0.319%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 18:59
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -7.84%E -3.07%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -9.11%E -2.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-19 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.07%EV -9.64%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.94%EV -11.56%E -5.38%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -6.84%E -1.67%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-19 19:05
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -9.64%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -15.93%E -4.30%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-19 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.46%EV -10.73%E -4.34%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 40.75%EV -9.09%E -4.11%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -10.25%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 04:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.35%EV -11.45%E -4.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.24%EV -13.61%E -6.48%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -15.93%E -4.30%K -5.90%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-19 19:03
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.39%EV -13.26%E -5.52%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.62%EV -11.56%E -5.38%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.98%EV -13.66%E -3.59%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-19 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.47%EV -13.26%E -5.52%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.52%EV -15.67%E -7.64%K -14.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.01%EV -15.93%E -4.30%K -5.90%G +0.000%17.5%2026-04-19 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.91%EV -16.87%E -7.34%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -4.57%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%1.9%2026-04-19 19:05
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-04-19 17:35
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-04-19 19:05
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%7.7%2026-04-17 19:04
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%7.7%2026-04-17 19:04
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-04-19 19:03
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%8.0%2026-04-19 07:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-04-19 17:40
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%8.3%2026-04-17 19:03
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%9.0%2026-04-19 07:05