The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Providence Bruins

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 19:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 37.74%2.65fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.28%38.08%37.75%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.452.472.5544.44%40.89%40.49%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Providence Bruins (Visit)

Prediction 39.67%2.52fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.99%39.37%39.69%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.342.3846.51%43.44%42.64%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.59%4.43fair odd
EV -5.79%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.32%22.55%22.56%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.903.854.1727.03%25.62%25.97%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 37.74%; Providence Bruins (Visit): 39.67%; Draw: 22.59%. For Hershey Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -3.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -3.77%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.15%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -3.77%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.15%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -3.77%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.15%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -3.77%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.15%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -3.77%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.15%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -3.77%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.15%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:14
GTbets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.18%EV -4.14%E -1.63%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -5.59%E -2.35%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.15%EV -7.82%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 14:14
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.58%EV -6.03%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.99%EV -7.17%E -3.07%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.44%EV -5.79%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-16 22:00
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.76%E -3.81%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 39.89%EV -10.35%E -4.58%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 14:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.74%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.58%EV -11.31%E -4.81%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.78%EV -11.93%E -5.38%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-18 14:12
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.16%EV -13.20%E -5.74%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.75%EV -14.71%E -6.84%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.10%EV -16.41%E -4.43%K -6.08%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-18 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -15.09%E -6.71%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-16 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.67%EV -15.09%E -6.71%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.42%EV -14.71%E -6.84%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.91%EV -16.41%E -4.43%K -6.08%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%3.1%2026-10-18 19:00
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-10-18 16:50
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-10-18 14:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%7.1%2026-10-18 14:19
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%7.6%2026-10-18 14:14
Bally Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%7.6%2026-10-18 14:15
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-10-18 14:15
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%8.2%2026-10-18 14:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-10-16 22:10