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Hershey Bears v Lehigh Valley Phantoms

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 44.30%2.26fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.71%44.52%44.30%45.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.102.122.1850.76%47.67%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit)

Prediction 32.89%3.04fair odd
EV -5.27%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.04%32.69%32.89%34.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.702.8839.22%36.86%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.99%22.78%22.81%24.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.933.904.1527.03%25.47%25.64%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 44.30%; Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit): 32.89%; Draw: 22.81%. For Hershey Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -3.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.26%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -11.06%E -2.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 00:00
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.26%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -11.06%E -2.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 00:00
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.26%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -11.06%E -2.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 00:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.26%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -11.06%E -2.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.26%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -11.06%E -2.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 00:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.26%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -11.06%E -2.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 00:00
LeoVegas🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.71%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.26%EV -13.49%E -5.13%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.03%EV -14.48%E -3.86%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-22 00:00
GTbets🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.26%EV -5.64%E -2.65%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.96%EV -5.92%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.77%EV -5.59%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 00:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.23%EV -6.08%E -2.87%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -6.25%E -2.19%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -6.50%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 23:59
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.98%EV -7.85%E -3.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -5.27%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.54%EV -5.36%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 23:59
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.18%E -4.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -8.78%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 00:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -9.18%E -4.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -11.06%E -2.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-22 00:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.98%EV -9.18%E -4.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -6.50%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-22 00:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.01%EV -11.40%E -5.70%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.74%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.25%EV -15.62%E -4.22%K -5.79%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-22 00:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.83%EV -11.84%E -5.95%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.91%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -14.48%E -3.86%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-21 23:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.39%EV -12.28%E -6.20%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.69%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.91%EV -14.48%E -3.86%K -5.27%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-22 00:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.54%EV -12.73%E -6.46%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.43%EV -8.78%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-22 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%5.0%2026-02-22 00:00
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%6.4%2026-02-21 23:59
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%6.8%2026-02-22 00:00
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-02-21 23:59
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%7.6%2026-02-22 00:00
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%7.6%2026-02-22 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-02-21 23:59
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%8.0%2026-02-22 00:00
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%8.3%2026-02-22 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-02-21 23:59
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%12.1%2026-02-22 00:00