The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Charlotte Checkers

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 43.20%2.31fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.53%42.89%43.15%43.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.122.2150.00%47.42%47.17%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charlotte Checkers (Visit)

Prediction 34.45%2.90fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.10%34.93%34.43%37.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.702.8041.67%37.31%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.35%4.47fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.588%
Kelly -0.763%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.18%22.42%23.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.054.004.3626.67%24.69%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 43.20%; Charlotte Checkers (Visit): 34.45%; Draw: 22.35%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.36, with an expected value of -2.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.31%EV -4.53%E -2.05%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.24%EV -11.11%E -4.31%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.45%EV -2.56%E -0.588%K -0.763%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 18:56
GTbets🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.26%EV -5.82%E -2.67%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.17%EV -4.91%E -1.78%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.56%EV -6.59%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 02:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -7.12%E -3.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -17.32%E -7.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -6.14%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-04 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -7.55%E -3.53%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -6.14%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 02:15
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.41%E -3.97%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 02:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.41%E -3.97%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 02:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.41%E -3.97%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 02:15
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.41%E -3.97%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 02:15
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.41%E -3.97%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 02:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.41%E -3.97%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 02:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.41%E -3.97%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 02:15
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.28%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -8.70%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 02:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.10%EV -10.14%E -4.88%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-04 02:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -11.44%E -5.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -6.14%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-04 02:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -11.44%E -5.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -10.61%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.22%EV -11.44%E -5.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 34.34%EV -11.11%E -4.31%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.43%EV -11.73%E -2.97%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 02:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -13.60%E -6.80%K -13.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.29%EV -13.87%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -16.20%E -4.32%K -5.89%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-04 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-10-04 17:30
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-10-04 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%6.6%2026-10-04 17:45
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%7.6%2026-10-04 02:14
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%7.6%2026-10-04 02:14
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%8.2%2026-10-04 02:15
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%8.2%2026-10-04 07:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%8.8%2026-10-04 17:30
Kalshi◎1.32I 75.76%NM 61.18%2.08I 48.08%NM 38.82%23.8%2026-10-04 19:00