The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Bridgeport Islanders

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 41.53%2.41fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.15%41.97%41.53%43.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.202.3048.78%46.03%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bridgeport Islanders (Visit)

Prediction 35.99%2.78fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.373%
Kelly -0.586%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.43%35.65%35.99%36.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.632.652.7541.67%37.99%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.48%4.45fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -0.991%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%22.38%22.48%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.933.804.2627.03%25.46%26.32%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 41.53%; Bridgeport Islanders (Visit): 35.99%; Draw: 22.48%. For Bridgeport Islanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.80%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.09%EV -1.39%E -0.506%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -6.47%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 21:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.04%EV -6.42%E -2.47%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -5.57%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 20:59
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.88%EV -7.40%E -3.32%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.20%EV -7.14%E -2.77%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.92%EV -4.22%E -0.991%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 20:59
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -1.03%E -0.373%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -14.57%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 21:00
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -1.03%E -0.373%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -14.57%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 21:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -1.03%E -0.373%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -14.57%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 21:00
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -1.03%E -0.373%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -14.57%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -1.03%E -0.373%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -14.57%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 21:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -1.03%E -0.373%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -14.57%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 21:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -10.07%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-22 21:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.37%EV -9.89%E -4.56%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.91%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -11.19%E -2.83%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 21:00
LeoVegas🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.18%EV -11.13%E -5.20%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -2.83%E -1.05%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -16.81%E -4.54%K -6.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-22 21:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -12.79%E -6.09%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -8.22%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -5.57%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 21:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 41.37%EV -14.04%E -6.78%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.68%EV -13.62%E -5.68%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 22.96%EV -16.14%E -4.33%K -5.91%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-22 20:58
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.70%EV -14.87%E -7.25%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -6.42%E -2.47%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -7.82%E -1.91%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-22 21:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.96%EV -14.87%E -7.25%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.11%EV -11.82%E -4.83%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.94%EV -15.69%E -4.18%K -5.71%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-22 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%4.0%2026-03-22 20:59
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%5.4%2026-03-22 20:59
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-22 21:00
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-03-22 21:00
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-03-22 21:00
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-03-22 20:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%8.1%2026-03-22 20:59
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%8.2%2026-03-22 21:00
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%8.3%2026-03-22 21:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%8.8%2026-03-22 20:59