The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Bridgeport Islanders

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 42.13%2.37fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.94%42.13%41.56%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.222.2948.78%45.80%45.05%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bridgeport Islanders (Visit)

Prediction 35.67%2.80fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.696%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.71%35.67%35.86%36.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.612.622.7541.67%38.27%38.17%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.20%4.50fair odd
EV -6.75%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%22.20%22.58%24.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.873.754.2027.40%25.84%26.67%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 42.13%; Bridgeport Islanders (Visit): 35.67%; Draw: 22.20%. For Bridgeport Islanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.91%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.19%EV -3.52%E -1.54%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.14%EV -6.91%E -2.65%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.67%EV -7.64%E -1.84%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 22:50
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.57%EV -6.05%E -2.71%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -1.91%E -0.696%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.57%EV -6.05%E -2.71%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -1.91%E -0.696%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.57%EV -6.05%E -2.71%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -1.91%E -0.696%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:50
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.57%EV -6.05%E -2.71%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -1.91%E -0.696%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:50
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.57%EV -6.05%E -2.71%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -1.91%E -0.696%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.57%EV -6.05%E -2.71%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -1.91%E -0.696%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.57%EV -6.05%E -2.71%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -1.91%E -0.696%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:50
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.07%EV -6.47%E -2.92%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.55%E -2.50%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.29%EV -6.97%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 22:55
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -9.05%E -3.55%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -11.19%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 23:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.31%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.17%EV -11.19%E -4.49%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -11.19%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-18 22:50
LeoVegas🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.44%EV -8.58%E -3.95%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.93%EV -5.48%E -2.07%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -18.96%E -5.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 22:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.94%EV -9.42%E -4.38%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.07%EV -10.83%E -4.33%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.19%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-18 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.19%EV -11.53%E -5.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.04%EV -14.40%E -6.00%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -15.63%E -4.11%K -5.58%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-18 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.94%EV -11.53%E -5.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.82%EV -14.40%E -6.00%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%EV -17.85%E -4.82%K -6.61%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-18 23:03
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -13.63%E -6.65%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -9.05%E -3.55%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -6.75%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-18 22:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.65%EV -13.63%E -6.65%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.58%EV -14.40%E -6.00%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.77%EV -16.74%E -4.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-18 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%3.9%2026-04-18 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-04-18 22:50
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-04-18 23:00
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%7.6%2026-04-18 22:50
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%7.6%2026-04-18 22:50
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-04-18 22:50
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%8.0%2026-04-18 22:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%8.1%2026-04-18 22:50
Smarkets◎1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-04-18 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%9.1%2026-04-18 22:50