The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Bridgeport Islanders

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 38.66%2.59fair odd
EV -6.82%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -4.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.80%38.66%38.66%39.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.382.4145.45%42.75%42.02%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bridgeport Islanders (Visit)

Prediction 38.66%2.59fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.38%38.66%38.66%39.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.402.4845.45%41.91%41.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV -7.04%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.67%22.67%23.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.943.954.1026.32%25.38%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 38.66%; Bridgeport Islanders (Visit): 38.66%; Draw: 22.67%. For Bridgeport Islanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.48, with an expected value of -4.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 37.80%EV -6.82%E -2.83%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.43%EV -10.69%E -4.63%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 20:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.68%EV -7.21%E -3.00%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.68%EV -7.21%E -3.00%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.04%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 04:14
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.03%EV -7.98%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.44%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 20:29
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.03%EV -7.98%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.44%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 20:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.03%EV -7.98%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.44%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 20:30
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.03%EV -7.98%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.44%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 20:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.03%EV -7.98%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.44%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 20:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.03%EV -7.98%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.44%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 20:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.03%EV -7.98%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.44%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 20:29
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -9.14%E -3.89%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -9.14%E -3.89%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 04:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -11.07%E -4.81%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -11.07%E -4.81%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -7.04%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 04:14
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.07%E -4.81%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -7.21%E -3.00%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.84%E -3.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 20:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.58%EV -13.01%E -5.78%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.58%EV -13.01%E -5.78%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -13.84%E -3.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-23 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 38.70%EV -14.17%E -6.38%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.70%EV -14.17%E -6.38%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -13.84%E -3.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-23 23:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.89%EV -14.94%E -6.79%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.89%EV -14.94%E -6.79%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.22%EV -12.71%E -3.30%K -4.46%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-23 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%3.1%2026-04-23 23:05
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-04-23 23:04
Bet Right🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%5.3%2026-04-23 20:39
GTbets🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.06%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.94%6.4%2026-04-23 23:05
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%7.9%2026-04-23 20:29
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%7.9%2026-04-23 20:29
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-04-22 23:05
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 49.86%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.14%8.4%2026-04-23 11:04
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%8.4%2026-04-23 20:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-04-22 23:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-04-22 23:04