The School of Odds
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Hershey Bears v Belleville Senators

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 23:03 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 43.35%2.31fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.514%
Kelly -0.915%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.58%43.67%43.36%45.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.142.122.2851.02%46.65%47.17%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belleville Senators (Visit)

Prediction 34.52%2.90fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.18%34.28%34.50%36.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.602.562.7740.82%38.52%39.06%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.13%4.52fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -0.908%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%22.05%22.14%23.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.064.004.3426.32%24.63%25.00%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 43.35%; Belleville Senators (Visit): 34.52%; Draw: 22.13%. For Hershey Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -1.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -1.17%E -0.514%K -0.915%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -11.97%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 08:25
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -1.17%E -0.514%K -0.915%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -11.97%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 08:25
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -1.17%E -0.514%K -0.915%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -11.97%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -1.17%E -0.514%K -0.915%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -11.97%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 08:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -1.17%E -0.514%K -0.915%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -11.97%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 08:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.58%EV -1.17%E -0.514%K -0.915%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -11.97%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 08:24
GTbets🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.05%EV -5.51%E -2.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.19%EV -6.37%E -1.51%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 19:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -7.24%E -3.38%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 19:45
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -10.25%E -3.94%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 23:00
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.72%EV -9.41%E -4.50%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.74%EV -4.38%E -1.58%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.54%EV -3.94%E -0.908%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 22:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.34%EV -9.84%E -4.73%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -10.25%E -3.94%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -11.14%E -5.43%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -10.25%E -3.94%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 19:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.24%EV -11.14%E -5.43%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.49%EV -11.28%E -4.39%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.27%EV -11.91%E -2.99%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.69%EV -13.31%E -6.65%K -13.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.85%EV -15.43%E -6.30%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.47%EV -15.89%E -4.18%K -5.68%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-24 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.48%EV -14.61%E -7.42%K -15.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.18%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 19:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.03%EV -15.04%E -7.67%K -15.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.84%EV -11.97%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.13%EV -13.68%E -3.51%K -4.72%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-24 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-10-24 19:50
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-10-24 19:45
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%7.0%2026-10-24 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-24 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%7.7%2026-10-24 08:25
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%7.7%2026-10-24 08:25
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%8.2%2026-10-24 19:45
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%9.4%2026-10-24 19:50