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Hershey Bears v Belleville Senators

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hershey Bears (Local)

Prediction 45.36%2.20fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.28%45.79%45.36%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.032.052.1353.48%49.17%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belleville Senators (Visit)

Prediction 32.82%3.05fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.623%
Kelly -0.936%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.85%32.39%32.82%34.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.802.842.9939.22%35.69%35.15%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.82%4.58fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.95%21.82%21.82%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.053.954.3727.03%24.70%25.32%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hershey Bears (Local): 45.36%; Belleville Senators (Visit): 32.82%; Draw: 21.82%. For Belleville Senators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.99, with an expected value of -1.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.46%EV -3.39%E -1.59%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.38%EV -1.86%E -0.623%K -0.936%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.16%EV -4.65%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 20:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.94%EV -5.65%E -2.72%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.80%EV -6.46%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -8.36%E -1.99%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 20:59
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.43%EV -5.65%E -2.72%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -4.82%E -1.66%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -14.91%E -3.82%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 21:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.43%EV -5.65%E -2.72%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -4.82%E -1.66%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -14.91%E -3.82%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 21:00
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.43%EV -5.65%E -2.72%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -4.82%E -1.66%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -14.91%E -3.82%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 20:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.43%EV -5.65%E -2.72%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -4.82%E -1.66%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -14.91%E -3.82%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 21:00
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.01%E -3.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.93%EV -6.79%E -2.39%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.45%EV -4.87%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 20:59
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -7.01%E -3.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -19.27%E -5.21%K -7.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 21:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 44.77%EV -8.83%E -4.39%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.72%E -3.18%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-15 21:00
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.61%EV -9.28%E -4.64%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -6.18%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-15 21:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -9.28%E -4.64%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -13.02%E -4.91%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -6.18%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-15 21:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.28%EV -9.28%E -4.64%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.94%EV -16.30%E -6.39%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.78%EV -17.09%E -4.50%K -6.10%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-15 21:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.90%EV -11.10%E -5.66%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.75%EV -16.30%E -6.39%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.35%EV -16.00%E -4.15%K -5.61%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-15 21:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -15.18%E -8.12%K -17.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -4.82%E -1.66%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -8.36%E -1.99%K -2.61%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-15 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-03-15 20:59
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-03-15 21:00
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-03-15 21:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-03-15 20:59
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%8.1%2026-03-15 21:00
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%8.6%2026-03-15 21:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%9.0%2026-03-15 20:59
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 47.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.56%13.9%2026-03-15 21:00