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Henderson Silver Knights v Tucson Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henderson Silver Knights (Local)

Prediction 44.04%2.27fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.25%44.21%44.04%44.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.092.112.1650.76%47.80%47.39%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tucson Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 34.03%2.94fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.24%34.01%34.03%34.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.732.8140.00%37.31%36.70%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.93%4.56fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -0.953%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.24%21.79%21.93%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.104.104.3726.32%24.38%24.39%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henderson Silver Knights (Local): 44.04%; Tucson Roadrunners (Visit): 34.03%; Draw: 21.93%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.37, with an expected value of -4.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 09:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:00
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:00
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 09:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 09:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:00
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.87%EV -6.19%E -2.91%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.74%EV -8.47%E -3.15%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.38%EV -4.16%E -0.953%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 00:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -6.63%E -3.13%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.43%E -2.34%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 12:44
GTbets🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.50%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25%EV -4.38%E -1.56%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 07:10
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -8.39%E -4.03%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.96%EV -9.83%E -3.71%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -13.37%E -3.39%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 10:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.86%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -9.83%E -3.71%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-04 12:44
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.04%EV -9.71%E -4.74%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -11.53%E -4.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 00:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -9.71%E -4.74%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -11.53%E -4.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 12:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.87%EV -11.92%E -5.96%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -8.13%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.89%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-04 22:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.53%EV -11.92%E -5.96%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.14%EV -13.23%E -5.19%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.32%EV -14.47%E -3.71%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-05 00:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.73%EV -12.80%E -6.46%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -14.93%E -5.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.64%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-04 12:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 43.36%EV -13.24%E -6.72%K -13.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.17%EV -14.93%E -5.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.48%EV -16.66%E -4.39%K -5.95%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-05 00:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-04-05 01:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-04-04 12:44
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-04-05 00:20
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-04 13:39
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%7.8%2026-04-04 09:59
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%7.8%2026-04-04 09:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-04-04 11:59
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%8.1%2026-04-04 13:09
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%8.1%2026-04-04 10:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-04-04 14:45