The School of Odds
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Henderson Silver Knights v Coachella Valley Firebirds

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henderson Silver Knights (Local)

Prediction 42.86%2.33fair odd
EV +2.00%
Edge +0.840%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.28%42.42%43.01%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.202.3850.00%46.18%45.45%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit)

Prediction 34.96%2.86fair odd
EV -5.62%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.19%35.44%34.74%39.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.502.502.7044.44%40.00%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.19%4.51fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.542%
Kelly -0.701%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.01%22.13%22.25%22.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.204.204.4026.67%23.81%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henderson Silver Knights (Local): 42.86%; Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit): 34.96%; Draw: 22.19%. For Henderson Silver Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.00%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV +2.00%E +0.840%K +1.45%G +0.029%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -16.80%E -7.06%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.44%EV -3.27%E -0.750%K -0.974%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 01:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.03%EV -3.57%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.00%EV -17.15%E -7.24%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -9.04%E -2.20%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 22:34
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.02%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.38%E -0.542%K -0.701%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 23:25
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.02%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.38%E -0.542%K -0.701%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 23:24
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.02%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.38%E -0.542%K -0.701%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 23:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.02%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.38%E -0.542%K -0.701%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 23:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.02%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.38%E -0.542%K -0.701%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 23:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.02%EV -5.71%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.38%E -0.542%K -0.701%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 23:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.32%EV -7.86%E -3.65%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -5.62%E -2.08%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.66%EV -7.86%E -3.65%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.90%EV -21.35%E -9.49%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.44%EV -15.69%E -4.13%K -5.61%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-15 01:34
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.00%E -4.76%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -7.36%E -2.78%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.26%E -2.81%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 02:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -10.00%E -4.76%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -9.11%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -11.26%E -2.81%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-15 02:03
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -10.00%E -4.76%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-14 12:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -12.14%E -5.92%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -10.86%E -4.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-15 02:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -14.29%E -7.14%K -14.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.29%EV -12.61%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -16.80%E -4.48%K -6.11%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-15 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%4.9%2026-10-15 01:05
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-10-15 02:00
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-10-15 01:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%7.0%2026-10-14 22:35
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%7.8%2026-10-12 23:28
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%7.8%2026-10-12 23:34
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-10-14 22:30
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-10-12 23:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-10-14 22:35