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Henderson Silver Knights v Bakersfield Condors

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henderson Silver Knights (Local)

Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.62%45.01%44.50%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.092.102.1751.81%47.95%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bakersfield Condors (Visit)

Prediction 33.01%3.03fair odd
EV -5.27%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.36%33.01%33.46%35.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.682.702.8740.82%37.35%37.04%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.99%4.55fair odd
EV +0.035%
Edge +0.008%
Kelly +0.010%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.56%21.99%22.04%23.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.834.084.004.5526.11%24.53%25.00%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henderson Silver Knights (Local): 45.01%; Bakersfield Condors (Visit): 33.01%; Draw: 21.99%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.548. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.550, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.035%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.18%EV -6.83%E -3.30%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.26%EV -9.89%E -3.62%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.56%EV +0.035%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-15 01:59
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.58%EV -5.27%E -1.84%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.80%EV -2.82%E -0.639%K -0.825%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-13 02:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.15%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.81%EV -14.18%E -5.45%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -5.46%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-15 02:00
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -12.53%E -4.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 02:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.50%EV -8.64%E -4.25%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.46%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -9.86%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-14 15:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.90%EV -11.79%E -6.01%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.12%EV -19.13%E -7.81%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.99%EV -9.86%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-15 02:00
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.62%EV -2.33%E -1.08%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 22:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.62%EV -2.33%E -1.08%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 22:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.62%EV -2.33%E -1.08%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 22:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.62%EV -2.33%E -1.08%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 22:49
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.62%EV -2.33%E -1.08%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 22:50
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.62%EV -2.33%E -1.08%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 22:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.62%EV -2.33%E -1.08%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.88%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 22:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.30%EV -13.14%E -6.81%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -5.93%E -2.08%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -12.06%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-14 15:40
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.79%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -13.19%E -5.02%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-13 22:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.19%EV -11.34%E -5.75%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.48%EV -14.18%E -5.45%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.32%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-15 01:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 43.99%EV -12.69%E -6.54%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 33.73%EV -16.49%E -6.52%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.28%EV -15.79%E -4.12%K -5.58%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-15 01:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-04-15 02:00
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-04-13 13:54
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-04-14 16:04
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-13 05:09
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-13 05:10
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%7.8%2026-04-13 05:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-04-14 02:10
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%8.3%2026-04-14 15:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-04-14 20:00
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 60.37%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.63%11.2%2026-04-15 02:00