The School of Odds
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Henderson Silver Knights v Bakersfield Condors

Kickoff: 2026-10-05 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henderson Silver Knights (Local)

Prediction 37.50%2.67fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.41%37.71%37.35%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.482.5543.48%40.62%40.32%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bakersfield Condors (Visit)

Prediction 40.46%2.47fair odd
EV -6.54%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.83%40.20%40.74%41.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.302.3147.62%44.25%43.48%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.04%4.54fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.481%
Kelly -0.620%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.07%22.10%21.91%23.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.054.004.4426.32%24.70%25.00%22.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henderson Silver Knights (Local): 37.50%; Bakersfield Condors (Visit): 40.46%; Draw: 22.04%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.44, with an expected value of -2.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.38%E -1.72%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.38%E -1.72%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:10
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.38%E -1.72%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:10
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.38%E -1.72%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.38%E -1.72%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.38%E -1.72%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.38%E -1.72%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:10
GTbets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -4.75%E -1.87%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.83%EV -6.54%E -2.83%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.04%EV -5.66%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 09:10
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.72%EV -7.00%E -2.82%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.21%EV -8.16%E -3.59%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.07%EV -2.13%E -0.481%K -0.620%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 23:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.74%EV -8.16%E -3.59%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -5.22%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 09:10
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 00:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 37.27%EV -9.63%E -3.99%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -10.99%E -5.00%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -9.63%E -2.35%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-04 09:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.00%E -4.17%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 00:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.35%EV -11.13%E -4.69%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.79%EV -12.21%E -5.62%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.86%EV -10.73%E -2.65%K -3.52%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-04 09:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -13.75%E -5.98%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-04 20:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -13.75%E -5.98%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -13.01%E -6.05%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -16.24%E -4.27%K -5.80%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-05 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.14%EV -13.75%E -5.98%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.68%EV -15.04%E -7.16%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.19%EV -15.14%E -3.93%K -5.31%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-04 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-10-05 00:00
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%5.1%2026-10-04 23:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%7.1%2026-10-04 23:55
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%8.0%2026-10-04 09:10
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%8.0%2026-10-04 09:14
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%8.3%2026-10-04 12:10
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%8.3%2026-10-04 09:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-10-04 09:10