The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Hartford Wolf Pack v Lehigh Valley Phantoms

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartford Wolf Pack (Local)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV -6.29%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.40%39.44%39.03%41.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.332.352.4046.51%42.99%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit)

Prediction 38.83%2.58fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.21%38.50%38.86%40.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.282.4845.45%43.37%43.86%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.13%4.52fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -0.858%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.18%22.06%22.11%22.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.184.204.3526.67%23.91%23.81%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartford Wolf Pack (Local): 39.04%; Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit): 38.83%; Draw: 22.13%. For Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.48, with an expected value of -3.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.42%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 21:29
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.42%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 21:30
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.42%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 21:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.42%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 21:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.42%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 21:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.42%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 21:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -7.08%E -2.97%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -7.59%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 21:44
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-14 21:45
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.11%EV -9.03%E -3.87%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -3.71%E -1.50%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.20%EV -6.83%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-14 22:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 39.08%EV -9.81%E -4.25%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.91%EV -9.92%E -4.28%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -9.27%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-14 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.25%EV -10.20%E -4.43%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.25%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-14 21:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.97%EV -11.37%E -5.01%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.80%EV -11.48%E -5.03%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.23%EV -11.92%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-14 21:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.22%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.22%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.57%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-14 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.66%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.66%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.68%EV -17.01%E -4.54%K -6.19%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-14 22:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -16.06%E -7.47%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-14 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%3.9%2026-10-14 21:40
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-10-14 21:44
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%5.3%2026-10-14 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.67%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.33%7.3%2026-10-14 22:29
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%7.8%2026-10-12 23:35
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%7.8%2026-10-12 23:34
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-10-12 23:29
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.14%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.86%8.4%2026-10-14 21:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-10-14 22:29