The School of Odds
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Hartford Wolf Pack v Hershey Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartford Wolf Pack (Local)

Prediction 31.75%3.15fair odd
EV -4.75%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.30%31.58%31.75%34.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.803.0038.46%35.80%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hershey Bears (Visit)

Prediction 45.48%2.20fair odd
EV -0.862%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.03%45.43%45.48%46.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.082.112.1852.08%47.99%47.39%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.77%4.39fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -0.916%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%22.98%22.77%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.774.2627.78%25.70%26.49%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartford Wolf Pack (Local): 31.75%; Hershey Bears (Visit): 45.48%; Draw: 22.77%. For Hershey Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -0.862%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -4.75%E -1.58%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -9.05%E -4.52%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -14.60%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 22:59
GTbets🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.08%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.78%EV -6.32%E -3.07%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.14%EV -2.99%E -0.701%K -0.916%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.81%EV -7.92%E -2.73%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.29%EV -12.23%E -6.34%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -8.56%E -2.97%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.22%EV -5.86%E -2.83%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -4.35%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 22:59
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.10%E -3.96%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -0.862%E -0.395%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.60%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 23:00
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.10%E -3.96%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -0.862%E -0.395%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.60%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 23:00
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.10%E -3.96%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -0.862%E -0.395%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.60%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 22:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.10%E -3.96%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -0.862%E -0.395%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.60%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 22:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.10%E -3.96%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -0.862%E -0.395%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.60%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.10%E -3.96%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -0.862%E -0.395%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.60%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 22:59
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -12.69%E -4.61%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -2.23%E -1.04%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -18.02%E -5.00%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.83%EV -12.69%E -4.61%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -9.05%E -4.52%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -6.63%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-07 22:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -12.69%E -4.61%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 44.77%EV -8.59%E -4.28%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-07 23:00
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.96%EV -15.23%E -5.70%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.02%EV -1.32%E -0.607%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.02%EV -3.44%E -0.811%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 22:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.72%EV -15.86%E -5.99%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.46%EV -11.32%E -5.81%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.82%EV -13.46%E -3.54%K -4.81%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-07 22:58
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.10%EV -17.45%E -6.71%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.83%EV -12.69%E -6.61%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.07%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-07 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%4.1%2026-03-07 23:00
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-03-07 22:59
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-03-07 22:59
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%7.2%2026-03-07 22:46
Bally Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%7.4%2026-03-07 22:59
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%7.4%2026-03-07 22:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-03-07 22:59
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-03-07 23:00
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%8.5%2026-03-07 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%9.0%2026-03-07 22:59