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Hartford Wolf Pack v Belleville Senators

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartford Wolf Pack (Local)

Prediction 39.32%2.54fair odd
EV -6.42%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -4.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.83%39.61%39.32%40.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.382.3845.45%42.99%42.02%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belleville Senators (Visit)

Prediction 37.91%2.64fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.47%37.60%37.91%38.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.452.5044.44%41.53%40.82%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.77%4.39fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.09%22.79%22.77%23.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.683.994.004.2027.17%25.06%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartford Wolf Pack (Local): 39.32%; Belleville Senators (Visit): 37.91%; Draw: 22.77%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -4.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.64%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.74%EV -5.22%E -2.09%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.62%EV -5.04%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 13:20
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.47%EV -7.88%E -3.24%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -4.36%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.07%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.64%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 02:30
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:34
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.57%E -4.16%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -9.01%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -8.91%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 04:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.57%E -4.16%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -10.91%E -4.64%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -6.64%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-21 02:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.17%EV -9.57%E -4.16%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.02%EV -10.15%E -4.28%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.81%EV -10.05%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-21 02:29
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.12%EV -9.57%E -4.16%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.81%EV -9.77%E -4.11%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.19%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-20 05:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -13.50%E -6.14%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -7.12%E -2.91%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -11.19%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-21 20:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.23%EV -13.50%E -6.14%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -14.70%E -6.53%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.42%EV -12.33%E -3.20%K -4.33%G +0.000%15.9%2026-02-21 02:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.83%EV -13.50%E -6.14%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.96%EV -14.70%E -6.53%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.21%EV -16.20%E -4.40%K -6.05%G +0.000%17.1%2026-02-22 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-02-21 19:30
Bet Right🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%5.3%2026-02-21 20:25
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%7.0%2026-02-20 08:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-02-21 02:29
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%8.1%2026-02-21 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%8.1%2026-02-20 05:35
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%8.1%2026-02-20 05:34
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%8.1%2026-02-20 05:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-02-21 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-02-21 02:54
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 50.98%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.02%12.1%2026-02-21 19:35