The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hamilton Hammers v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 19:09 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamilton Hammers (Local)

Prediction 48.52%2.06fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%48.52%48.38%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.931.921.9852.63%51.74%52.08%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 51.48%1.94fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%51.48%51.62%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.811.801.8756.50%55.29%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamilton Hammers (Local): 48.52%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 51.48%. For Toronto Marlies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -3.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.93%E -1.99%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.79%E -3.16%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 05:45
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.73%E -2.00%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 16:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.34%E -4.08%K -9.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 17:09
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.84%E -3.56%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.34%E -4.08%K -9.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.84%E -3.56%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.34%E -4.08%K -9.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%EV -7.85%E -4.39%K -9.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%EV -7.81%E -4.11%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%EV -8.88%E -5.02%K -11.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.71%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%8.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.71%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.71%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%8.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.71%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.71%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%8.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.71%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.93%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.52%9.6%2026-10-11 05:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.10%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%11.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%11.4%2026-10-11 18:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.12%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.52%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.36%13.2%2026-10-10 14:00