The School of Odds
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Grand Rapids Griffins v Manitoba Moose

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grand Rapids Griffins (Local)

Prediction 41.79%2.39fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.57%41.79%40.92%43.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.242.272.3348.78%44.55%44.05%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manitoba Moose (Visit)

Prediction 35.78%2.79fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.45%35.78%36.43%37.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.432.6842.55%40.71%41.15%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.43%4.46fair odd
EV -6.45%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.85%22.43%22.66%23.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.024.104.1727.40%24.90%24.39%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grand Rapids Griffins (Local): 41.79%; Manitoba Moose (Visit): 35.78%; Draw: 22.43%. For Grand Rapids Griffins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.33, with an expected value of -2.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.57%EV -2.64%E -1.13%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.94%EV -13.06%E -5.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 21:40
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.57%EV -2.64%E -1.13%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.94%EV -13.06%E -5.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.57%EV -2.64%E -1.13%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.94%EV -13.06%E -5.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 21:40
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.57%EV -2.64%E -1.13%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.94%EV -13.06%E -5.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 21:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.57%EV -2.64%E -1.13%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.94%EV -13.06%E -5.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 21:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.57%EV -2.64%E -1.13%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.94%EV -13.06%E -5.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 21:40
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.48%EV -3.47%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.10%EV -9.84%E -3.90%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.42%EV -6.45%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.92%EV -5.14%E -2.27%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -8.76%E -3.44%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-20 23:05
GTbets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.94%EV -5.98%E -2.66%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.21%EV -4.11%E -1.53%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.85%EV -7.35%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 11:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 40.75%EV -7.65%E -3.46%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.46%EV -11.63%E -4.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -11.39%E -2.88%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 12:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%EV -8.07%E -3.67%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -14.13%E -5.89%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.19%EV -10.16%E -4.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.77%EV -15.92%E -6.77%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.04%EV -15.87%E -4.23%K -5.77%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-21 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.06%EV -10.16%E -4.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.65%EV -15.92%E -6.77%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.28%EV -17.00%E -4.59%K -6.29%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-21 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.50%EV -12.25%E -5.83%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.19%EV -15.92%E -6.77%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.30%EV -18.12%E -4.96%K -6.84%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-21 22:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.70%EV -14.34%E -6.99%K -13.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -6.97%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -8.02%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-21 18:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-10-21 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-10-21 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%7.2%2026-10-21 22:44
Bally Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%7.3%2026-10-21 21:44
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%7.3%2026-10-21 21:40
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-10-21 21:40
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%8.4%2026-10-21 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%9.0%2026-10-21 21:45
Kalshi◎1.39I 71.94%NM 50.00%1.39I 71.94%NM 50.00%43.9%2026-10-21 23:05