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Grand Rapids Griffins v Manitoba Moose

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grand Rapids Griffins (Local)

Prediction 58.04%1.72fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -6.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.07%58.04%58.04%59.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.631.6566.67%62.37%61.35%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manitoba Moose (Visit)

Prediction 21.52%4.65fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.52%21.52%21.52%22.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.134.104.4026.32%24.19%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.44%4.89fair odd
EV -8.01%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.07%20.44%20.44%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.334.404.5025.32%23.07%22.73%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grand Rapids Griffins (Local): 58.04%; Manitoba Moose (Visit): 21.52%; Draw: 20.44%. For Grand Rapids Griffins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -4.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.24%E -2.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.06%E -2.29%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 21:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.24%E -2.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.06%E -2.29%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 21:34
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.24%E -2.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.06%E -2.29%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 21:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.24%E -2.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.06%E -2.29%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 21:34
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.24%E -2.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.06%E -2.29%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 21:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.24%E -2.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.06%E -2.29%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 21:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.24%E -2.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.06%E -2.29%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 21:39
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.35%EV -5.40%E -3.31%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.69%EV -7.24%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 20.96%EV -8.83%E -1.98%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.03%EV -7.14%E -4.46%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 23:04
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -7.14%E -4.46%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -14.99%E -3.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -12.10%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 21:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.07%EV -8.30%E -5.25%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.90%EV -18.22%E -4.79%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.03%EV -19.25%E -4.87%K -6.53%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-08 22:49
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -8.88%E -5.66%K -15.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 23:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.41%EV -11.78%E -7.75%K -22.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -5.31%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.73%EV -12.94%E -8.63%K -25.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.65%EV -18.23%E -4.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-08 23:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.44%EV -12.94%E -8.63%K -25.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.02%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.54%EV -18.23%E -4.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-08 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.1%2026-05-08 23:09
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%5.3%2026-05-08 21:34
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-08 22:59
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%6.0%2026-05-08 23:04
GTbets🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.52%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.48%6.5%2026-05-08 23:05
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%8.0%2026-05-08 21:34
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%8.0%2026-05-08 21:40
Bally Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%8.0%2026-05-08 21:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.15%8.4%2026-05-07 23:04
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%8.4%2026-05-08 21:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%9.2%2026-05-07 23:04