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Coachella Valley Firebirds v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 02:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local)

Prediction 34.63%2.89fair odd
EV -6.49%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.59%34.63%34.29%37.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.482.7041.67%39.59%40.32%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 42.48%2.35fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.21%42.48%43.07%43.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.202.232.3050.51%45.43%44.84%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.89%4.37fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.589%
Kelly -0.770%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.92%22.89%22.64%23.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.074.204.2627.03%24.57%23.81%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local): 34.63%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 42.48%; Draw: 22.89%. For Ontario Reign (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -2.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -6.17%E -1.51%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 02:05
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.24%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.84%EV -7.39%E -3.39%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.92%EV -2.51%E -0.589%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 01:59
Betway🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.79%E -5.14%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -8.46%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-06 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.98%EV -12.91%E -6.30%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -6.17%E -1.51%K -1.99%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-06 02:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.59%EV -11.69%E -4.58%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.26%EV -15.89%E -8.02%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.15%EV -15.33%E -4.14%K -5.68%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-06 02:00
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.47%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -2.29%E -0.996%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.88%E -0.924%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.47%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -2.29%E -0.996%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.88%E -0.924%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.47%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -2.29%E -0.996%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.88%E -0.924%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.47%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -2.29%E -0.996%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.88%E -0.924%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.47%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -2.29%E -0.996%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.88%E -0.924%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.47%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -2.29%E -0.996%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.88%E -0.924%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.47%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -2.29%E -0.996%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.88%E -0.924%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.39%EV -14.11%E -5.69%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 41.21%EV -9.51%E -4.47%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -14.18%E -3.78%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-06 01:31
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -15.15%E -6.18%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.37%EV -10.79%E -5.14%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -14.18%E -3.78%K -5.16%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-06 01:45
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -16.88%E -7.03%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -5.26%E -2.36%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -8.46%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 07:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-05-06 02:05
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-05-05 12:39
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-05-06 02:05
GTbets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%6.3%2026-05-06 02:05
Bally Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%7.6%2026-05-02 07:20
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-05-05 13:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-05-05 12:40
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%8.2%2026-05-02 07:20
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%8.2%2026-05-05 14:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%9.1%2026-05-05 13:15