The School of Odds
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Coachella Valley Firebirds v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 22:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local)

Prediction 40.36%2.48fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -3.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.78%40.76%40.36%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.302.3747.62%44.46%43.48%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 37.69%2.65fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.90%37.23%37.69%38.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.402.402.5144.44%41.59%41.67%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.95%4.56fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -0.779%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.07%22.01%21.95%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.194.254.4026.67%23.85%23.56%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local): 40.36%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 37.69%; Draw: 21.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -3.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.84%EV -4.34%E -1.83%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.62%EV -5.41%E -2.15%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.54%EV -8.04%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 14:00
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.18%EV -5.95%E -2.55%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -6.54%E -2.64%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.08%EV -6.94%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 21:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.32%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.67%E -3.13%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.82%EV -6.72%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 22:05
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.63%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.43%E -0.779%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.63%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.43%E -0.779%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:09
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.63%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.43%E -0.779%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:09
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.63%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.43%E -0.779%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.63%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.43%E -0.779%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.63%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.43%E -0.779%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:09
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -7.16%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.67%E -3.13%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -12.21%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 21:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 40.20%EV -9.58%E -4.28%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.84%EV -10.31%E -4.33%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -10.01%E -2.44%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -11.20%E -5.09%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.75%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.07%EV -5.62%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 22:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.19%EV -13.22%E -6.15%K -11.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.77%EV -11.44%E -4.87%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.04%EV -17.69%E -4.72%K -6.43%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-11 22:03
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -15.23%E -7.25%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 19:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.68%EV -15.23%E -7.25%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.14%EV -13.32%E -5.79%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.19%EV -15.50%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-11 22:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.23%EV -15.23%E -7.25%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.54%EV -15.21%E -6.76%K -12.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.23%EV -16.60%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000%18.4%2026-10-11 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-10-11 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%6.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%7.0%2026-10-11 20:50
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%7.3%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-10-11 22:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-10-11 21:04
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 48.45%1.25I 80.00%NM 51.55%55.2%2026-10-11 22:05