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Coachella Valley Firebirds v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 02:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local)

Prediction 32.99%3.03fair odd
EV -6.65%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -3.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.99%32.99%32.99%34.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.762.802.8339.22%36.26%35.71%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 43.08%2.32fair odd
EV -6.09%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -5.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.54%43.08%43.08%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.042.042.1852.08%48.90%49.02%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.94%4.18fair odd
EV +4.12%
Edge +0.947%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.28%23.94%23.94%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.134.234.3527.03%24.22%23.64%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local): 32.99%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 43.08%; Draw: 23.94%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.12%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.51%EV -12.12%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV +4.12%E +0.947%K +1.23%G +0.051%7.7%2026-05-06 06:14
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.51%EV -12.12%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV +4.12%E +0.947%K +1.23%G +0.051%7.7%2026-05-06 06:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.51%EV -12.12%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV +4.12%E +0.947%K +1.23%G +0.051%7.7%2026-05-06 06:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.51%EV -12.12%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV +4.12%E +0.947%K +1.23%G +0.051%7.7%2026-05-06 06:15
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.51%EV -12.12%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV +4.12%E +0.947%K +1.23%G +0.051%7.7%2026-05-06 06:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.51%EV -12.12%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV +4.12%E +0.947%K +1.23%G +0.051%7.7%2026-05-06 06:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.51%EV -12.12%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV +4.12%E +0.947%K +1.23%G +0.051%7.7%2026-05-06 06:14
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.46%EV -7.38%E -3.43%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.93%EV +1.97%E +0.461%K +0.603%G +0.012%7.0%2026-05-08 01:59
GTbets🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.65%EV -6.65%E -2.35%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.68%EV -6.09%E -2.79%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV +0.529%E +0.126%K +0.165%G +0.001%5.0%2026-05-06 06:22
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.61%EV -15.57%E -7.94%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV +0.529%E +0.126%K +0.165%G +0.001%11.9%2026-05-06 06:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.29%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.66%EV -14.71%E -7.43%K -15.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -1.86%E -0.455%K -0.601%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-08 02:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.11%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.38%E -3.43%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -6.65%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 02:00
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -10.24%E -2.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-08 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.20%EV -15.88%E -6.23%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.54%EV -11.69%E -5.70%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -10.24%E -2.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-08 01:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.99%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.98%EV -17.29%E -9.01%K -18.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%EV -10.24%E -2.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-08 02:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.11%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.46%EV -16.00%E -8.20%K -16.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.43%EV -11.44%E -3.09%K -4.24%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-08 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-05-08 02:00
Bet Right🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%5.3%2026-05-06 12:15
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 43.95%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%6.8%2026-05-08 02:05
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%7.4%2026-05-06 06:14
Bally Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%7.4%2026-05-06 06:14
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-05-06 12:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-05-07 02:05
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%8.2%2026-05-07 14:05
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%8.2%2026-05-06 06:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%9.4%2026-05-07 08:09