The School of Odds
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Coachella Valley Firebirds v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local)

Prediction 35.61%2.81fair odd
EV -0.284%
Edge -0.101%
Kelly -0.158%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.34%36.13%35.61%37.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.592.602.8042.55%38.60%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 41.53%2.41fair odd
EV -6.15%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.68%41.09%41.53%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.252.2650.00%45.58%44.44%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.86%4.37fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.32%22.78%22.86%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.913.904.1627.40%25.60%25.64%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local): 35.61%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 41.53%; Draw: 22.86%. For Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -0.284%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.34%EV -0.284%E -0.101%K -0.158%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.55%EV -6.15%E -2.72%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -4.90%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-01 08:39
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 06:01
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 06:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 06:00
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 06:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 06:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 06:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.41%EV -5.63%E -2.12%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.70%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -6.27%E -1.53%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-01 01:34
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.58%EV -7.41%E -2.85%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.44%EV -9.89%E -4.56%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -14.28%E -3.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-01 06:00
1xBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.44%EV -8.47%E -3.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.78%EV -9.47%E -4.34%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-01 19:29
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -9.19%E -3.60%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-01 06:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.35%EV -9.19%E -3.60%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.54%EV -9.89%E -4.56%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -10.85%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-01 03:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.97%E -4.39%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.71%EV -10.72%E -4.98%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -10.97%E -4.39%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.79%EV -12.79%E -6.09%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -13.13%E -3.46%K -4.69%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-01 22:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.31%EV -13.82%E -5.71%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.28%EV -14.04%E -6.78%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.41%EV -16.56%E -4.54%K -6.25%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-02 01:07
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -16.31%E -6.94%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -6.56%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-01 21:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.48%EV -16.31%E -6.94%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.68%EV -16.95%E -8.47%K -16.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.84%EV -16.56%E -4.54%K -6.25%G +0.000%20.0%2026-04-01 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%4.9%2026-04-01 23:59
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-04-01 00:05
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%6.9%2026-04-02 00:40
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%7.5%2026-04-01 06:00
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%7.5%2026-04-01 06:00
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Smarkets◎1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%8.0%2026-04-01 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-04-01 23:59
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%8.6%2026-04-01 06:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%9.0%2026-04-02 00:49