The School of Odds
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Coachella Valley Firebirds v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 01:09 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local)

Prediction 33.68%2.97fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.44%33.67%33.68%35.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.752.8538.46%36.37%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 43.94%2.28fair odd
EV -0.260%
Edge -0.115%
Kelly -0.205%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.56%44.15%43.94%45.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.062.082.2751.55%48.45%48.08%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.38%4.47fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -0.551%
Kelly -0.715%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%22.18%22.38%23.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.044.004.3626.67%24.77%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local): 33.68%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 43.94%; Draw: 22.38%. For Ontario Reign (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.27, with an expected value of -0.260%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -4.02%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -4.02%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -4.02%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -4.02%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:05
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -4.02%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:05
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -4.02%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -4.02%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:05
1xBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.54%EV -6.04%E -2.17%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.99%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.46%EV -2.40%E -0.551%K -0.715%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 00:59
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -7.39%E -2.69%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 01:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -9.07%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.97%E -2.79%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -9.07%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -12.12%E -6.06%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-04 01:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.18%EV -9.07%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.48%EV -13.44%E -6.82%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-04 00:10
GTbets🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.60%EV -10.76%E -4.06%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.56%EV -0.260%E -0.115%K -0.205%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.84%EV -7.55%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 09:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.76%E -4.06%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.39%EV -8.61%E -4.14%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-03 18:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.62%EV -10.76%E -4.06%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.33%EV -14.32%E -7.34%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.05%EV -16.06%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-04 01:03
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -12.44%E -4.78%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -10.46%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 00:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.06%EV -12.44%E -4.78%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.31%EV -14.76%E -7.61%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -14.94%E -3.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-04 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-04 01:05
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-10-03 18:55
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%7.3%2026-10-03 09:50
Bally Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%7.3%2026-10-03 09:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-10-03 19:01
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-10-03 09:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%9.4%2026-10-04 00:45
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 48.41%1.22I 81.97%NM 51.59%58.9%2026-10-04 01:05