The School of Odds
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Coachella Valley Firebirds v Henderson Silver Knights

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 02:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local)

Prediction 46.43%2.15fair odd
EV -5.75%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -5.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.68%46.43%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.972.012.0354.95%50.71%49.63%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henderson Silver Knights (Visit)

Prediction 31.78%3.15fair odd
EV -5.61%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.33%31.52%31.78%32.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.852.902.9739.22%35.06%34.48%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.79%4.59fair odd
EV -5.21%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.44%21.80%21.79%22.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.834.114.104.3526.11%24.36%24.39%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coachella Valley Firebirds (Local): 46.43%; Henderson Silver Knights (Visit): 31.78%; Draw: 21.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.35, with an expected value of -5.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.51%EV -5.75%E -2.83%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.79%EV -5.61%E -1.89%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -5.21%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 02:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -6.30%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-26 02:40
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 08:24
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 08:24
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 08:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 08:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 08:24
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.72%EV -6.68%E -3.32%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.13%EV -9.11%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -9.57%E -2.31%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 01:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.91%EV -9.00%E -4.59%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -11.02%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-25 07:45
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.54%EV -9.46%E -4.85%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -9.43%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -8.48%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-26 06:34
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.05%EV -9.46%E -4.85%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -9.43%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -12.84%E -3.21%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-26 08:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.41%EV -9.93%E -5.12%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.15%EV -11.02%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -8.48%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-25 07:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.45%EV -12.71%E -6.76%K -14.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.24%EV -15.78%E -5.96%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.31%EV -16.54%E -4.32%K -5.85%G +0.000%17.0%2026-02-27 02:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -13.18%E -7.05%K -15.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-26 08:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 45.74%EV -15.50%E -8.52%K -18.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.64%EV -18.96%E -7.44%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.62%EV -16.11%E -4.18%K -5.65%G +0.000%20.1%2026-02-25 07:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%2.1%2026-02-27 02:19
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-02-25 02:35
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-02-26 09:23
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-02-27 01:25
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-02-25 08:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-02-26 02:39
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%8.0%2026-02-26 08:25
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%8.0%2026-02-26 08:25
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%8.0%2026-02-26 08:24
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 57.29%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.71%8.4%2026-02-26 14:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%9.0%2026-02-26 06:59