The School of Odds
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Cleveland Monsters v W-B/Scranton Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 19:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Monsters (Local)

Prediction 43.78%2.28fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.03%43.78%43.78%44.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.052.062.1751.55%48.75%48.54%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 34.82%2.87fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.84%35.14%34.82%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.622.632.7040.82%38.24%38.02%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.40%4.67fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -0.822%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.87%21.08%21.40%23.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.264.354.5026.67%23.49%22.99%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Monsters (Local): 43.78%; W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit): 34.82%; Draw: 21.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -3.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.03%EV -5.00%E -2.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.50%EV -8.42%E -3.20%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -6.91%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.24%EV -8.06%E -3.84%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.41%EV -5.98%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -6.91%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 05:30
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.33%EV -8.06%E -3.84%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -10.12%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 19:05
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.82%EV -9.81%E -4.76%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.98%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.84%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 05:30
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.82%EV -9.81%E -4.76%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.98%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.84%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 05:30
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.82%EV -9.81%E -4.76%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.98%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.84%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 05:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.82%EV -9.81%E -4.76%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.98%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.84%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 05:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.82%EV -9.81%E -4.76%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.98%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.84%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 05:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.82%EV -9.81%E -4.76%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.98%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.84%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 05:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -10.25%E -5.00%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -10.12%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 05:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -10.25%E -5.00%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.50%EV -14.69%E -6.00%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -3.70%E -0.822%K -1.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.76%EV -12.44%E -6.22%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -7.98%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 05:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.15%EV -12.44%E -6.22%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.84%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.01%EV -19.75%E -5.27%K -7.18%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-17 19:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.05%EV -12.44%E -6.22%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.15%EV -14.69%E -6.00%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.80%EV -15.47%E -3.92%K -5.24%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-17 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 43.56%EV -15.07%E -7.77%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.49%EV -14.69%E -6.00%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.95%EV -17.61%E -4.57%K -6.18%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-17 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%5.2%2026-10-17 17:30
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-10-17 05:30
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-17 05:30
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-17 05:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-17 17:30
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%8.1%2026-10-17 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%8.3%2026-10-17 05:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%9.4%2026-10-17 17:20
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 52.65%1.79I 55.87%NM 47.35%18.0%2026-10-17 19:05