The School of Odds
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Cleveland Monsters v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Monsters (Local)

Prediction 40.62%2.46fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.34%40.62%40.62%41.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.232.3347.62%44.95%44.84%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 36.72%2.72fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.08%36.72%36.72%38.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.532.552.6544.44%39.55%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%22.67%22.67%23.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.984.004.2427.03%25.13%25.00%23.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Monsters (Local): 40.62%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 36.72%; Draw: 22.67%. For Toronto Marlies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -2.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.18%EV -5.36%E -2.30%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -8.94%E -3.61%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.08%EV -3.89%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.62%EV -7.80%E -3.44%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 23:00
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.61%EV -8.61%E -3.83%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.34%EV -8.61%E -3.83%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.34%EV -17.39%E -7.73%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.32%EV -16.13%E -4.36%K -5.97%G +0.000%15.9%2026-05-14 23:03
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -9.43%E -4.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -2.70%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 23:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -9.43%E -4.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -2.70%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 23:09
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -9.43%E -4.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -2.70%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 23:09
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -9.43%E -4.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -2.70%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 23:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -9.43%E -4.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -2.70%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 23:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -9.43%E -4.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -2.70%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 23:08
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -9.43%E -4.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -2.70%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 23:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%EV -10.64%E -4.84%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-11 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.00%EV -10.64%E -4.84%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.44%EV -13.72%E -5.84%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.56%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-14 22:50
LeoVegas🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.65%EV -12.27%E -5.68%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -6.37%E -2.50%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-11 23:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.76%EV -14.71%E -7.00%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%EV -13.72%E -5.84%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -15.00%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-14 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-05-14 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-05-14 20:40
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-14 23:05
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%6.3%2026-05-14 23:05
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%7.5%2026-05-11 23:09
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%7.5%2026-05-11 23:09
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-05-12 23:05
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-05-14 11:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-05-13 23:10
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%8.3%2026-05-11 23:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%9.1%2026-05-14 20:40