The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cleveland Monsters v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Monsters (Local)

Prediction 40.24%2.49fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.62%40.69%40.24%42.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.332.3847.62%43.69%42.92%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 36.86%2.71fair odd
EV -6.02%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.07%36.51%36.86%37.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.482.5542.55%40.59%40.32%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.90%4.37fair odd
EV -6.09%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.83%22.79%22.90%24.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.893.854.1027.40%25.71%25.97%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Monsters (Local): 40.24%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 36.86%; Draw: 22.90%. For Cleveland Monsters (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -4.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -4.23%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -8.60%E -3.47%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.82%E -3.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -4.23%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -8.60%E -3.47%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.82%E -3.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -4.23%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -8.60%E -3.47%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.82%E -3.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -4.23%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -8.60%E -3.47%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.82%E -3.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -4.23%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -8.60%E -3.47%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.82%E -3.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -4.23%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -8.60%E -3.47%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.82%E -3.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 00:05
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.47%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.27%EV -7.49%E -2.99%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.27%EV -7.92%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 23:59
GTbets🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.98%EV -5.03%E -2.13%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.00%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.09%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.29%EV -6.24%E -2.68%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.09%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 23:59
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.62%EV -6.24%E -2.68%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.71%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.65%EV -16.40%E -4.49%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-22 00:05
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -7.45%E -3.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -9.71%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.38%E -2.10%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 40.12%EV -9.86%E -4.40%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 36.83%EV -10.07%E -4.13%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -10.67%E -2.74%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.51%EV -11.47%E -5.21%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.99%EV -13.39%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.49%EV -15.25%E -4.12%K -5.65%G +0.000%15.0%2026-02-21 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -13.48%E -6.27%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.54%EV -9.71%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -6.09%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-22 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.06%EV -13.48%E -6.27%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.65%EV -13.39%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.28%EV -15.25%E -4.12%K -5.65%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-22 00:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.58%EV -15.50%E -7.38%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -8.38%E -2.10%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-22 00:01
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.76%EV -15.50%E -7.38%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%EV -13.39%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -14.11%E -3.76%K -5.13%G +0.000%16.8%2026-02-22 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-02-22 00:05
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-02-21 23:59
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%7.0%2026-02-22 00:04
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%7.6%2026-02-22 00:05
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%7.6%2026-02-22 00:05
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-22 00:04
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%8.1%2026-02-22 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-02-21 23:59
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%8.2%2026-02-22 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%9.1%2026-02-21 23:59
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 50.00%1.49I 67.11%NM 50.00%34.2%2026-02-22 00:05