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Cleveland Monsters v Rochester Americans

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Monsters (Local)

Prediction 39.74%2.52fair odd
EV -6.60%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -4.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.40%39.95%39.74%41.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.292.3546.51%44.02%43.67%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Americans (Visit)

Prediction 37.28%2.68fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.603%
Kelly -0.970%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.76%36.96%37.28%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.502.6443.48%40.68%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.98%4.35fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.50%23.09%22.98%23.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.934.004.1027.40%25.43%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Monsters (Local): 39.74%; Rochester Americans (Visit): 37.28%; Draw: 22.98%. For Rochester Americans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -1.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79%EV -6.60%E -2.81%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -5.78%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-25 23:00
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.80%E -3.36%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.80%E -3.36%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 09:10
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.80%E -3.36%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 09:09
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.80%E -3.36%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 09:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.80%E -3.36%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.80%E -3.36%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 09:09
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -8.59%E -3.74%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-25 23:00
GTbets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.22%EV -8.99%E -3.93%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.76%EV -1.59%E -0.603%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -5.78%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-25 23:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.58%EV -9.39%E -4.12%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.29%EV -9.79%E -4.05%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -10.37%E -2.66%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-25 23:04
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.29%EV -10.18%E -4.50%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.72%EV -7.56%E -3.05%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 22.99%EV -9.00%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-25 23:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.58%E -4.70%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-25 22:59
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -10.58%E -4.70%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.35%EV -11.52%E -2.99%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-25 09:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -12.57%E -5.71%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.67%E -3.33%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-25 23:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.51%EV -12.57%E -5.71%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.99%EV -12.40%E -5.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.49%EV -14.97%E -4.05%K -5.54%G +0.000%15.0%2026-02-25 23:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 39.40%EV -13.76%E -6.34%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.17%EV -14.26%E -6.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.42%EV -16.12%E -4.42%K -6.08%G +0.000%17.0%2026-02-25 23:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -14.55%E -6.77%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -14.26%E -6.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -12.67%E -3.33%K -4.53%G +0.000%16.3%2026-02-25 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-02-25 22:59
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-02-25 23:20
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%6.8%2026-02-25 23:14
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-25 23:55
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-25 15:35
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%8.0%2026-02-25 09:09
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%8.0%2026-02-25 09:09
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-02-25 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-02-25 22:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%9.0%2026-02-25 23:20
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.59%9.0%2026-02-25 23:55