The School of Odds
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Cleveland Monsters v Grand Rapids Griffins

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:09 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Monsters (Local)

Prediction 35.65%2.81fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.19%35.70%35.50%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.602.7041.67%38.75%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grand Rapids Griffins (Visit)

Prediction 41.89%2.39fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.846%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.35%41.95%42.26%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3448.78%45.65%45.45%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.46%4.45fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.819%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%22.34%22.24%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.034.004.3327.03%24.84%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Monsters (Local): 35.65%; Grand Rapids Griffins (Visit): 41.89%; Draw: 22.46%. For Grand Rapids Griffins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -1.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:20
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:20
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:20
Betway🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -5.54%E -2.09%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -12.03%E -5.73%K -10.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.75%EV -12.03%E -5.73%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -11.26%E -2.85%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-04 19:05
GTbets🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.74%EV -8.39%E -3.26%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.35%EV -1.98%E -0.846%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.92%EV -7.45%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 02:20
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -10.17%E -4.04%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.34%EV -5.33%E -2.36%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.58%EV -2.73%E -0.630%K -0.819%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 18:56
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -10.89%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.62%EV -4.91%E -2.16%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 02:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.89%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -12.03%E -5.73%K -10.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -5.65%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-04 12:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.01%EV -13.38%E -5.51%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.51%EV -7.01%E -3.16%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.14%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 02:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -14.45%E -6.02%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-04 02:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -14.45%E -6.02%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -7.84%E -3.57%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.52%EV -11.26%E -2.85%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-04 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.47%EV -14.45%E -6.02%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.52%EV -14.13%E -6.89%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.01%EV -16.88%E -4.56%K -6.25%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-04 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-10-04 02:25
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-10-04 19:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%7.1%2026-10-04 06:25
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%7.3%2026-10-04 02:20
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%7.3%2026-10-04 02:20
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-10-04 02:20
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%8.3%2026-10-04 07:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%9.1%2026-10-04 06:24
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 49.80%1.22I 81.97%NM 50.20%63.3%2026-10-04 19:05