The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Chicago Wolves v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-06-13 00:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 39.58%2.53fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.84%39.58%39.58%40.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.332.402.4747.17%42.86%41.67%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 37.79%2.65fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.27%37.79%37.79%38.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.482.5243.48%41.05%40.32%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.63%4.42fair odd
EV -7.23%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.63%22.63%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.733.913.954.1026.81%25.56%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 39.58%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 37.79%; Draw: 22.63%. For Chicago Wolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.47, with an expected value of -2.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.84%EV -2.23%E -0.902%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.09%EV -4.77%E -1.89%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.06%EV -15.60%E -4.18%K -5.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-12 23:59
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -6.28%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 22:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -6.28%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 22:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -6.28%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 22:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -6.28%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 22:10
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -6.28%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 22:10
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -6.28%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 22:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -6.28%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 22:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -7.77%E -3.33%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -7.42%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -7.23%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-13 00:00
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.58%EV -7.77%E -3.33%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -10.06%E -4.23%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -14.02%E -3.69%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-12 22:10
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.96%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -9.31%E -3.88%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-13 00:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.90%EV -10.94%E -4.86%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.20%EV -11.20%E -4.76%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -7.23%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-13 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.53%EV -10.94%E -4.86%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -9.31%E -3.88%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -14.02%E -3.69%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-12 23:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.87%EV -14.90%E -6.93%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -13.09%E -5.69%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -15.15%E -4.04%K -5.51%G +0.000%16.7%2026-06-12 11:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.72%EV -16.08%E -7.59%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.27%EV -10.06%E -4.23%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.02%EV -15.15%E -4.04%K -5.51%G +0.000%15.9%2026-06-13 00:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-06-12 19:50
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-06-12 21:20
GTbets🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.06%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.94%6.4%2026-06-13 00:10
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%7.9%2026-06-12 19:50
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%7.9%2026-06-12 19:49
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%7.9%2026-06-13 00:00
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-06-12 20:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-06-12 02:20
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%8.4%2026-06-12 19:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%9.1%2026-06-12 21:19
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 51.15%1.56I 64.10%NM 48.85%31.2%2026-06-13 00:10