The School of Odds
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Chicago Wolves v Texas Stars

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 39.99%2.50fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.827%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.93%39.99%40.44%41.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.302.4547.62%43.23%43.38%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Stars (Visit)

Prediction 37.56%2.66fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.13%37.56%37.14%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.452.5643.48%41.18%40.82%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.45%4.45fair odd
EV -5.25%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%22.45%22.43%24.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.733.933.854.2226.81%25.46%25.97%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 39.99%; Texas Stars (Visit): 37.56%; Draw: 22.45%. For Chicago Wolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -2.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -2.03%E -0.827%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -7.98%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 20:59
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -2.03%E -0.827%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -7.98%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 20:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -2.03%E -0.827%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -7.98%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 20:59
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -2.03%E -0.827%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -7.98%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -2.03%E -0.827%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -7.98%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 21:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -2.03%E -0.827%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -7.98%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 20:59
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -4.83%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -9.86%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.17%EV -15.80%E -4.21%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 20:59
GTbets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.82%EV -7.63%E -3.30%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.83%EV -3.85%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.34%EV -5.25%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.82%EV -4.23%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-08 19:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -13.62%E -5.92%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-08 19:20
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -10.02%E -4.46%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -7.98%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-08 19:15
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.39%EV -12.02%E -5.47%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.13%EV -5.35%E -2.12%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.48%EV -9.07%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%EV -12.02%E -5.47%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -9.86%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-08 19:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.31%EV -14.02%E -6.52%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.88%EV -11.74%E -5.00%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%EV -14.68%E -3.86%K -5.24%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-08 19:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.29%EV -15.22%E -7.18%K -13.59%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 36.81%EV -12.87%E -5.55%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 22.90%EV -16.25%E -4.36%K -5.95%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-08 19:37
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.79%EV -16.02%E -7.63%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.24%EV -13.62%E -5.92%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.96%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-08 19:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-03-08 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-03-08 19:55
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-08 19:14
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-03-08 18:49
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-03-07 20:59
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-03-07 20:59
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-03-07 21:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-03-08 18:39
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-03-08 19:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%9.1%2026-03-08 19:14