The School of Odds
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Chicago Wolves v Texas Stars

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV +0.950%
Edge +0.388%
Kelly +0.655%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.66%41.71%41.20%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.292.272.4548.78%43.71%44.05%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Stars (Visit)

Prediction 36.06%2.77fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.79%35.84%36.06%39.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.352.6443.48%41.17%42.55%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.74%4.40fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%22.45%22.74%23.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.683.974.004.2027.17%25.18%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 41.20%; Texas Stars (Visit): 36.06%; Draw: 22.74%. For Chicago Wolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.950%.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV +0.950%E +0.388%K +0.655%G +0.006%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 07:14
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV +0.950%E +0.388%K +0.655%G +0.006%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 07:15
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV +0.950%E +0.388%K +0.655%G +0.006%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 07:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV +0.950%E +0.388%K +0.655%G +0.006%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 07:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV +0.950%E +0.388%K +0.655%G +0.006%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 07:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV +0.950%E +0.388%K +0.655%G +0.006%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 07:15
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.81%EV -1.93%E -0.813%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.12%EV -17.07%E -7.42%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.32%E -2.90%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 07:15
GTbets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.86%EV -4.82%E -2.09%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.45%EV -6.61%E -2.55%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.69%EV -5.41%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 00:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.21%EV -6.47%E -2.85%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 00:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -9.85%E -3.94%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-22 00:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.86%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.10%EV -10.21%E -4.10%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -11.32%E -2.90%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -11.66%E -4.76%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-22 00:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.64%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.11%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%EV -14.73%E -3.93%K -5.36%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-21 13:04
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.13%EV -10.18%E -4.67%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.79%EV -4.81%E -1.82%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.08%EV -9.50%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 00:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.00%EV -13.47%E -6.42%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.64%EV -15.26%E -6.49%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.36%EV -12.46%E -3.24%K -4.37%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-22 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.70%EV -13.47%E -6.42%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 36.07%EV -14.54%E -6.14%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.23%EV -16.33%E -4.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%17.0%2026-02-22 00:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -15.53%E -7.58%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -8.05%E -3.16%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-22 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-02-22 00:10
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-02-22 00:05
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%6.8%2026-02-22 00:10
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-21 07:49
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%8.1%2026-02-21 07:15
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%8.1%2026-02-21 07:15
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%8.1%2026-02-21 07:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-02-21 07:44
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%8.4%2026-02-22 00:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%9.0%2026-02-22 00:10
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 54.44%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.56%12.0%2026-02-22 00:05