The School of Odds
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Chicago Wolves v Texas Stars

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 00:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 41.00%2.44fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.89%41.00%41.12%42.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3247.62%44.50%44.44%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Stars (Visit)

Prediction 36.33%2.75fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -3.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.97%36.33%36.26%37.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.502.6042.55%40.38%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -0.747%
Kelly -0.976%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%22.67%22.62%23.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.044.104.2726.67%24.74%24.39%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 41.00%; Texas Stars (Visit): 36.33%; Draw: 22.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.27, with an expected value of -3.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.10%EV -4.88%E -2.10%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 07:15
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.10%EV -4.88%E -2.10%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 07:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.10%EV -4.88%E -2.10%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 07:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.10%EV -4.88%E -2.10%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 07:14
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.10%EV -4.88%E -2.10%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 07:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.10%EV -4.88%E -2.10%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 07:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.10%EV -4.88%E -2.10%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 07:14
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -7.75%E -3.44%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.39%EV -12.81%E -5.34%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.72%EV -10.45%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-05 07:14
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.13%EV -8.98%E -4.05%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -5.55%E -2.13%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 21.90%EV -3.19%E -0.747%K -0.976%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-05 23:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -8.98%E -4.05%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -7.36%E -2.89%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 00:04
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -9.80%E -4.45%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -9.18%E -3.67%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-05 08:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.17%EV -10.62%E -4.87%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -12.81%E -5.34%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.35%EV -14.98%E -3.99%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-05 23:48
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.85%EV -11.85%E -5.51%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -11.00%E -4.49%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-06 00:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.50%EV -11.85%E -5.51%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -12.81%E -5.34%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.22%EV -14.98%E -3.99%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-05 23:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.88%EV -13.90%E -6.62%K -12.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.53%EV -14.63%E -6.22%K -10.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.59%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%16.5%2026-05-06 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%4.1%2026-05-06 00:05
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-05-05 10:30
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-06 00:04
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%6.3%2026-05-06 00:05
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-05-05 04:15
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%8.0%2026-05-05 07:15
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%8.0%2026-05-05 07:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%8.1%2026-05-05 10:30
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%8.3%2026-05-05 08:10
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%8.4%2026-05-05 12:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%9.1%2026-05-05 12:55