The School of Odds
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Chicago Wolves v Manitoba Moose

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 45.71%2.19fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.71%45.71%45.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.052.1352.63%49.81%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manitoba Moose (Visit)

Prediction 31.63%3.16fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.30%31.63%32.14%32.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.922.953.0537.74%34.21%33.90%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.65%4.41fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -0.822%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.79%22.65%22.08%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.933.904.2627.03%25.48%25.64%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 45.71%; Manitoba Moose (Visit): 31.63%; Draw: 22.65%. For Chicago Wolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.13, with an expected value of -2.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -2.63%E -1.23%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.72%EV -7.95%E -2.73%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.57%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 00:05
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.38%EV -8.58%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.97%EV -3.50%E -0.822%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-15 23:59
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:49
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:49
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.28%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:49
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -5.10%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -15.05%E -4.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-16 00:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.65%EV -9.48%E -4.79%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-15 23:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.39%EV -9.48%E -4.79%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.68%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-14 00:05
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -9.94%E -5.05%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.45%EV -6.68%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.05%E -4.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-15 23:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.30%EV -11.77%E -6.10%K -12.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-14 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.24%EV -12.23%E -6.37%K -13.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.78%EV -16.17%E -6.10%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.99%EV -10.52%E -2.66%K -3.57%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-15 23:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.10%EV -12.23%E -6.37%K -13.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.49%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -16.19%E -4.37%K -5.99%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-15 23:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.36%EV -13.14%E -6.92%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.34%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.29%EV -16.19%E -4.37%K -5.99%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-16 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%3.2%2026-04-16 00:04
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-04-15 23:59
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-15 21:19
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-04-14 01:04
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-04-15 23:49
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-04-15 23:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-04-15 23:59
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%8.0%2026-04-15 23:49
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%8.5%2026-04-15 12:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%9.0%2026-04-15 14:14