The School of Odds
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Chicago Wolves v Manitoba Moose

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 00:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 44.11%2.27fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.01%44.42%44.11%46.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.002.1551.28%49.49%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manitoba Moose (Visit)

Prediction 33.27%3.01fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.89%33.02%33.27%34.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.752.8840.00%36.36%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.61%4.42fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.641%
Kelly -0.835%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.56%22.61%23.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.094.104.3027.03%24.44%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 44.11%; Manitoba Moose (Visit): 33.27%; Draw: 22.61%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.30, with an expected value of -2.76%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.50%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.39%EV -9.51%E -3.49%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.11%EV -4.34%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 23:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%EV -6.48%E -3.05%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.51%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.28%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 23:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.90%EV -9.12%E -4.43%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.54%E -2.39%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 23:25
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.56%E -4.67%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.51%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.54%E -2.39%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.98%EV -9.56%E -4.67%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -11.83%E -4.47%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -7.28%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-10 23:25
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -11.77%E -5.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.641%K -0.835%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -11.77%E -5.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.641%K -0.835%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -11.77%E -5.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.641%K -0.835%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -11.77%E -5.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.641%K -0.835%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -11.77%E -5.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.641%K -0.835%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -11.77%E -5.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.641%K -0.835%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.01%EV -11.77%E -5.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.74%EV -15.16%E -5.95%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.25%EV -16.33%E -4.41%K -6.05%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-11 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.39%EV -12.65%E -6.39%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.69%EV -15.16%E -5.95%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.91%EV -15.19%E -4.05%K -5.53%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-11 00:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.79%EV -13.98%E -7.17%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -9.54%E -2.39%K -3.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-10 23:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.35%EV -13.98%E -7.17%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.81%EV -16.82%E -6.73%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.84%EV -16.33%E -4.41%K -6.05%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-10 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%5.0%2026-10-10 23:25
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-10 23:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%6.8%2026-10-10 23:25
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%8.0%2026-10-10 23:25
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.59%8.2%2026-10-10 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%9.4%2026-10-10 23:25
Kalshi◎1.18I 84.75%NM 48.02%1.09I 91.74%NM 51.98%76.5%2026-10-11 00:10