The School of Odds
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Chicago Wolves v Iowa Wild

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 36.18%2.76fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.35%36.49%36.18%37.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.532.562.6442.55%39.55%38.99%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Wild (Visit)

Prediction 41.73%2.40fair odd
EV -5.69%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -4.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.68%41.34%41.73%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.242.2648.78%45.64%44.64%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.09%4.53fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%22.17%22.09%23.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.003.954.2627.03%25.00%25.32%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 36.18%; Iowa Wild (Visit): 41.73%; Draw: 22.09%. For Chicago Wolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -4.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.72%EV -4.48%E -1.70%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.72%EV -5.69%E -2.52%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.56%EV -7.68%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.54%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.76%E -3.23%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 14:14
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.54%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.76%E -3.23%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 14:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.54%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.76%E -3.23%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 14:14
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.54%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.76%E -3.23%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 14:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.54%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.76%E -3.23%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 14:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.54%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.76%E -3.23%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 14:14
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.20%EV -6.65%E -2.58%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.88%EV -6.94%E -3.11%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.92%EV -5.91%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 19:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.79%EV -7.36%E -3.31%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -6.13%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:14
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.42%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -10.28%E -4.78%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.65%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 20:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -12.36%E -5.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -7.23%E -1.72%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 20:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 36.16%EV -9.91%E -3.98%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.88%EV -10.28%E -4.78%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -9.44%E -2.30%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.35%EV -11.35%E -4.63%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.24%EV -12.36%E -5.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -18.28%E -4.94%K -6.77%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-18 20:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.68%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.78%EV -14.45%E -7.05%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.54%EV -16.07%E -4.23%K -5.74%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-18 20:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -14.97%E -6.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -11.65%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 19:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.17%EV -14.97%E -6.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.46%EV -14.45%E -7.05%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.37%EV -16.07%E -4.23%K -5.74%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-18 19:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-10-18 14:14
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-10-18 20:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%7.1%2026-10-18 14:14
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%7.8%2026-10-18 14:14
Bally Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%7.8%2026-10-18 14:15
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%8.2%2026-10-18 14:15
BetRivers🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-10-18 14:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%9.1%2026-10-18 14:14
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 49.63%1.33I 75.19%NM 50.37%49.3%2026-10-18 20:05