The School of Odds
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Chicago Wolves v Iowa Wild

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Wolves (Local)

Prediction 45.73%2.19fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.90%45.99%45.73%47.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.992.002.0952.91%50.18%50.00%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Wild (Visit)

Prediction 31.85%3.14fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.92%31.67%31.85%32.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.892.903.0037.74%34.66%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.42%4.46fair odd
EV -5.61%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.34%22.42%23.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.004.2126.67%24.90%25.00%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Wolves (Local): 45.73%; Iowa Wild (Visit): 31.85%; Draw: 22.42%. For Chicago Wolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.09, with an expected value of -4.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.90%EV -4.43%E -2.12%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.81%EV -8.90%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.29%EV -5.61%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.93%EV -6.72%E -3.29%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.03%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 18:05
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.29%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 06:54
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.29%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 06:54
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.29%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 06:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.29%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 06:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.29%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 06:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.29%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 06:54
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%EV -8.55%E -4.27%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -9.22%E -3.23%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 18:05
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.15%EV -9.00%E -4.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -6.99%E -2.39%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -8.08%E -1.97%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 20:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.41%EV -9.46%E -4.78%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.11%EV -10.81%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 18:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.15%EV -10.38%E -5.29%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -10.81%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-22 18:05
LeoVegas🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.77%EV -10.38%E -5.29%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.93%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.30%EV -13.69%E -3.55%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 06:54
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.52%EV -11.75%E -6.09%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.95%EV -12.40%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.53%EV -12.56%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-22 19:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.20%EV -13.12%E -6.90%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -8.08%E -1.97%K -2.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 13:18
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.50%EV -13.12%E -6.90%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.62%EV -15.59%E -5.88%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.88%EV -11.44%E -2.90%K -3.88%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-22 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.21%EV -13.58%E -7.18%K -15.25%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.00%EV -14.95%E -5.60%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -15.93%E -4.25%K -5.79%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-22 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-03-22 21:10
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-22 18:04
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-03-22 19:30
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-03-22 18:04
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-03-22 06:54
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-03-22 06:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-03-22 18:25
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%8.4%2026-03-22 06:54
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%8.5%2026-03-22 18:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%9.0%2026-03-22 18:24