The School of Odds
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Charlotte Checkers v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlotte Checkers (Local)

Prediction 48.75%2.05fair odd
EV -6.41%
Edge -3.34%
Kelly -6.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.89%48.75%48.61%49.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.881.911.9257.47%53.17%52.36%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 29.30%3.41fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -0.915%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.45%29.30%29.47%30.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.133.203.3136.36%31.96%31.25%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.96%4.55fair odd
EV -6.46%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.47%21.96%21.92%22.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.144.204.2625.97%24.17%23.81%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlotte Checkers (Local): 48.75%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 29.30%; Draw: 21.96%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.31, with an expected value of -3.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -6.41%E -3.34%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 04:49
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -6.41%E -3.34%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 04:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -6.41%E -3.34%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 04:49
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -6.41%E -3.34%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 04:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -6.41%E -3.34%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 04:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -6.41%E -3.34%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 04:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -6.41%E -3.34%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 04:49
GTbets🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -6.90%E -3.61%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.49%EV -3.03%E -0.915%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.14%EV -6.46%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 06:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.64%EV -6.90%E -3.61%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.50%EV -7.72%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.68%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 23:04
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -8.84%E -4.73%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-24 03:05
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.41%EV -9.33%E -5.02%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.45%EV -5.37%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -8.88%E -2.14%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 04:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.48%EV -9.33%E -5.02%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.06%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -7.78%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-23 08:29
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -9.82%E -5.31%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.17%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 04:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.32%EV -9.82%E -5.31%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.60%EV -11.52%E -3.82%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.07%EV -11.07%E -2.73%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 08:23
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.89%EV -12.26%E -6.81%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.72%EV -15.04%E -5.19%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.39%EV -15.46%E -4.02%K -5.43%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-23 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 47.97%EV -15.18%E -8.73%K -20.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.35%EV -19.43%E -7.07%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.68%EV -15.46%E -4.02%K -5.43%G +0.000%19.8%2026-04-23 08:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-23 08:30
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%5.4%2026-04-23 08:19
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%7.2%2026-04-23 08:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-04-23 23:10
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%7.9%2026-04-23 04:49
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%7.9%2026-04-23 04:49
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%8.2%2026-04-23 04:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%9.2%2026-04-23 23:10
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 59.57%2.24I 44.64%NM 40.43%10.4%2026-04-23 08:24
Kalshi◎1.11I 90.09%NM 50.00%1.11I 90.09%NM 50.00%80.2%2026-04-24 03:30