The School of Odds
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Charlotte Checkers v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlotte Checkers (Local)

Prediction 54.00%1.85fair odd
EV +0.976%
Edge +0.522%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.55%54.00%54.02%54.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.781.851.8761.73%56.10%54.20%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 24.78%4.04fair odd
EV -5.84%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.45%24.78%24.76%27.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.493.403.8031.25%28.69%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.22%4.71fair odd
EV -6.62%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.52%21.22%21.22%23.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.124.004.4025.64%24.27%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlotte Checkers (Local): 54.00%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 24.78%; Draw: 21.22%. For Charlotte Checkers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.976%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.89%EV -11.79%E -3.31%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.91%EV -7.26%E -1.66%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 22:04
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -15.75%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 02:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -15.75%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 02:00
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -15.75%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 02:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -15.75%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 02:00
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -15.75%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 02:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -15.75%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 02:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV +0.976%E +0.522%K +1.12%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -15.75%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 02:00
LeoVegas🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -1.72%E -0.947%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -18.23%E -5.52%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -17.23%E -4.42%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-21 02:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.66%E -4.48%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -5.84%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -6.62%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 23:00
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -7.66%E -4.48%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.56%E -2.62%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -8.74%E -2.03%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-22 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.12%EV -8.20%E -4.83%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.16%EV -20.71%E -6.47%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.73%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-22 22:50
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.41%EV -8.74%E -5.17%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.45%EV -6.83%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -7.68%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 22:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -10.36%E -6.24%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -10.79%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -6.62%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.02%EV -10.90%E -6.61%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -10.79%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -10.86%E -2.59%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.54%EV -12.52%E -7.73%K -20.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.78%EV -13.27%E -3.79%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -15.11%E -3.78%K -5.04%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-22 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-22 21:04
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-04-22 22:59
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%5.9%2026-04-22 22:45
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-04-21 02:00
Bally Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-04-21 02:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%7.6%2026-04-22 20:35
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-04-22 23:00
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 62.78%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%8.3%2026-04-22 20:30
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.78%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%8.3%2026-04-21 02:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%9.0%2026-04-22 20:20