The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Calgary Wranglers v Bakersfield Condors

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Calgary Wranglers (Local)

Prediction 43.99%2.27fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.19%44.19%43.99%45.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.102.1651.28%48.12%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bakersfield Condors (Visit)

Prediction 34.77%2.88fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.77%34.58%34.77%36.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.602.632.7441.67%38.51%38.02%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.23%4.71fair odd
EV -6.57%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.53%21.24%21.23%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.264.374.4026.32%23.50%22.88%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Calgary Wranglers (Local): 43.99%; Bakersfield Condors (Visit): 34.77%; Draw: 21.23%. For Bakersfield Condors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.74, with an expected value of -4.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.66%EV -4.98%E -2.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.41%EV -4.72%E -1.72%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -8.69%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:00
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.15%EV -6.74%E -3.18%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.28%EV -5.07%E -1.86%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.57%EV -7.84%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.06%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -7.85%E -2.96%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 19:10
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.09%EV -8.54%E -3.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.09%EV -8.54%E -3.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.09%EV -8.54%E -3.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.09%EV -8.54%E -3.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.09%EV -8.54%E -3.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.09%EV -8.54%E -3.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.33%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -9.59%E -3.69%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-11 19:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.19%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.04%EV -16.54%E -6.89%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -19.31%E -5.08%K -6.90%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-11 19:02
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.06%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.42%EV -11.33%E -4.44%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -9.59%E -3.69%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.90%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.79%EV -16.54%E -6.89%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.31%EV -18.25%E -4.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-11 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.42%EV -13.34%E -6.77%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.77%EV -7.85%E -2.96%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.69%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 15:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.56%EV -14.22%E -7.29%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.67%EV -14.80%E -6.04%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.78%EV -17.19%E -4.41%K -5.93%G +0.000%17.7%2026-10-11 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-11 18:59
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%6.8%2026-10-11 18:59
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%8.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%8.5%2026-10-11 07:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%9.4%2026-10-10 19:04
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 47.80%1.41I 70.92%NM 52.20%35.9%2026-10-11 19:04